Cash flow modelling is a financial planning tool that helps you understand what your finances could look like in the future.
Rather than simply looking at how much money you have today, cash flow modelling considers your income, spending, pensions, investments, property, debts and future financial goals. These are projected over many years to help answer important questions such as when you can afford to retire, whether your money could run out and how much you can afford to spend or give away.
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How Does Cash Flow Modelling Work?
The process usually begins by establishing your current financial position.
Your financial planner will gather information about your income and expenditure alongside assets such as pensions, ISAs, investments, savings and property. Liabilities such as mortgages and other debts are also included.
The next stage is establishing what you actually want your money to achieve. This could include retiring at a particular age, maintaining a certain income in retirement, buying another property, paying school fees or helping your children buy their first home.
Saltus says understanding how different financial objectives interact and when they are likely to occur is important when determining whether you have sufficient money to achieve them all.
Seeing Your Financial Future
Cash flow modelling software uses your financial information to create a long-term projection of your finances.
Assumptions can be made about factors such as investment growth and inflation to estimate how the value of your assets could change over time.
The result is usually presented visually, allowing you to see how your wealth could accumulate and then potentially decline as you begin drawing money from pensions and investments.
It can identify a future shortfall, but it can also reveal that you have more money than you are likely to need.
Answering the Question: Do I Have Enough Money?
One of the most useful applications of cash flow modelling is retirement planning.
You might have substantial pensions and investments but still be unsure whether they are sufficient to allow you to stop working.
Cash flow modelling can estimate how long your money could last based on your expected expenditure. This can help answer questions such as whether you can retire at 55 rather than 60 or whether you could afford to spend more during retirement.
It could equally show that you need to save more, retire later or adjust your expected retirement spending.
Testing Different Financial Scenarios
The advantage of cash flow modelling is that you can change the assumptions and see what happens.
For example, you could compare retiring at different ages, selling a property earlier or later, increasing retirement spending or making a substantial gift to your children.
More sophisticated modelling can also consider different investment outcomes. Saltus explains that stochastic modelling can test a financial plan against thousands of potential market environments to indicate how robust the plan might be under different conditions.
These are projections rather than guarantees, but they can provide useful information when making major financial decisions.
Cash Flow Modelling for Gifting and Estate Planning
Cash flow modelling can also be useful when deciding how much money you can afford to give away.
For example, you might want to give your children money for house deposits but be concerned about leaving yourself short later in retirement.
Modelling the gift alongside your expected future expenditure can show how it could affect your longer-term financial position. Saltus highlights this as one of the potential uses of cash flow planning, alongside considering the inheritance tax implications of retaining wealth.
How Can Financial Planners Help With Cash Flow Modelling?
Financial planners like Saltus uses cash flow planning to help clients understand whether their existing assets are sufficient to achieve their financial and lifestyle objectives.
Its financial planners can incorporate assets, liabilities, regular savings and financial goals into cash flow modelling software and then apply assumptions such as investment returns and inflation. Different scenarios can then be modelled to demonstrate the potential effect of decisions such as retiring earlier, spending more or gifting money.
Saltus also stresses that cash flow planning isn’t a one-off exercise. Financial circumstances, markets and personal objectives change, so a plan should be regularly reviewed and adjusted.
Ultimately, cash flow modelling can help turn a collection of pensions, investments and other assets into something more meaningful: an indication of what you can actually afford to do with your money throughout your life.