Pound To USD Forecast: Is Now A Good Time To Buy US Dollars With Pounds?

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The pound-to-US dollar forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPUSD price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy Dollars, or if you should wait until the price improves.

Highlights

  • Inflation rates have remained sticky; the Bank of England may not cut rates aggressively
  • GBPUSD rallies back to range high at 1.270
  • Traders now await the UK election in July; GBPUSD may range bound in the meantime

How has the Pound performed against the Dollar recently?

Are traders expecting better GBP economic performance?

Since mid-April, GBP has been climbing against a number of currencies, including the US dollar. Currently,  cable (USDGBP) is trading above 1.2700.

One factor, however, is now overshadowing most other macro factors – the looming 2024 General Election. Just recently, the conservative Prime Minister Sunak called a GE on the fourth of July. This will be the fifth GE in 15 years. The last GE was held right before the covid pandemic in 2019, when Boris Johnson led the Tory party to a 80-seat majority.

However, matters are looking rather different now for the party. According to the latest poll, Labour is set to win GE (see below). The reputation of the current government has taken a massive dive after the 2022 disastrous mini-budget. And people are reminded of this debacle whenever they look at their mortgage statements. Recent local elections saw the Conservative party lost 474 councillors.

Source: BBC (May 2024) 

Politics aside, GBPUSD traders are perhaps anticipating a less dovish Bank of England given the latest batch of economic data. Inflation remains sticky; while economic growth is muddling through. The case for multiple rate cuts is not strong.

Technically, GBPUSD is now rallying into the upside of its trading range (1.230-1.275). This area has capped GBPUSD’s performance before and it may set to do so again in the coming weeks, especially as macro data is suggesting an economy that is neither expanding nor contracting rapidly. A further extension of the range is a distinct possibility.

Is it a good time to buy US Dollars with pounds?

The past few weeks saw Sterling rebound against the Dollar.

This rally reversed GBP’s spring weakness when the rate briefly slumped below 1.240. The question now is whether GBP can continue its current good form. Technically there is some resistance noted at 1.270-1.285.

If you do need US dollars, now may not be a bad time to buy some given GBP’s recent strength.

Waiting for a better rate in the summer may be an option, although I have to point that market volatility is high these days and who knows, GBPUSD may regress back into 1.250 again.

In summary, I would scale in to buy some dollars now, and exchange more GBP for USD on further strength.

Will the pound get stronger against the USD in the second half of 2024?

The answer to this question will depend on what happens on the Fourth of July.

A new administration means new policies. This will quickly dictate the fiscal and market direction. At this point, I simply can’t anticipate if Pound Sterling can maintain its new-found strength into autumn.

Even the dollar is in flux these days. The near-term performance of the Dollar Index has not been in a one-way street. More often than not, a rally is quickly followed by a retracement (see below).

Should the equity market take a tumble this may boost the dollar due to a fall in risk sentiment. The dollar is a safe haven asset.

But again, equity markets are fickle and, given the red-hot AI sector, a correction is often followed by a bigger rally. In addition, UK macro data is not showing a consistent picture.

Given this backdrop, I maintain the view that GBPUSD is likely to remain within the twenties (1.230-1.285) for the foreseeable future. GBP may strengthen from here but this strength could be temporary until global macro and political uncertainties fade away.

 

What is the GBPUSD forecast in weeks, months, and years?

In light of the above-mentioned economic factors, most GBPUSD forecasters are not convinced GBP will continue to rally too much from here.

If anything, many are expecting GBPUSD to pull back into the range at around 1.250-1.265 (see below). Beyond that, they see a bound in the summer.

Given these wide predictions, I therefore expect GBPUSD to test the near-term resistance at 1.275  and then trade sideways at that level. Further resistance is noted at 1.300.

Source: fxstreet.com (May 2024)

Where is the best place for buying large amounts of US Dollars from Pounds

There are two different ways people buy Euros from Pounds

  • Through a currency broker – when transferring money abroad
  • Through a forex broker – when speculating on the price of currency

You can use this comparison table of currency brokers to see how many currencies they offer, what the minimum USD transfer is and if they offer forwards and currency options as well as when they were established. You can either visit each currency broker individually or use our currency quote comparison tool to request multiple exchange rates.

Or, if you are more interested in trading GBPUSD you can compare forex brokers here.

The current GBPUSD exchange rate is $0.78982 which is a change of -0.23% from the previous day’s closing price. Over a week GBPUSD is -0.23%, compared to its change over a month of 0.58% and one year of 0.36%.

GBPUSD exchange rate data is updated every 15 minutes.

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