Choice Prediction Markets has launched in the UK as a virtual-money prediction exchange designed to encourage debate about whether the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) should regulate prediction markets.
The new platform, Choice Prediction Markets, allows users to express their opinions on future events by taking positions on yes-or-no questions, with prices reflecting the probability of an outcome.
Unlike prediction market platforms operating in the US, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, Choice does not involve real-money trading yet, as Prediction Markets are not regulated in the UK. Instead, new users receive £100 in virtual funds to test their predictions without financial risk.
The platform’s initial market is whether the FCA will regulate prediction markets in the UK, an increasingly relevant question as the sector attracts growing interest internationally.
Each prediction market on Choice presents a question with two possible outcomes: yes or no.
Users select an outcome, set a price between 0 and 100 and decide how much virtual money to commit.
For example, a price of 60 indicates that a user believes an event has a 60% probability of occurring.
Unlike traditional OTC trading platforms, Choice operates an exchange-style order book where predictions are matched against opposing opinions from other users.
A prediction is only executed when another participant is willing to take the opposite position at the specified price.
Users can amend or cancel pending orders before they are matched, while completed transactions are recorded in their prediction history.
When a market is resolved, winning predictions settle at 100 and losing predictions at zero.
The launch comes amid growing confusion about how prediction markets should be regulated under UK financial services and gambling legislation.
As some prediction contracts resemble financial derivatives, others have more in common with traditional betting, creating uncertainty over where responsibility should sit between the FCA and the UK Gambling Commission.
Choice aims to highlight this regulatory uncertainty by allowing users to predict the outcome of the debate itself.
By operating exclusively with virtual funds, the platform provides an opportunity to explore exchange-based prediction markets without exposing participants to real-money losses.
The idea is to encourage discussion about whether the UK should establish a clearer regulatory framework for prediction markets as the industry continues to develop internationally and the UK is left behind, yet again…
Richard is the founder of the Good Money Guide (formerly Good Broker Guide), one of the original investment comparison sites established in 2015. With a career spanning two decades as a broker, he brings extensive expertise and knowledge to the financial landscape.
Having worked as a broker at Investors Intelligence and a multi-asset derivatives broker at MF Global (Man Financial), Richard has acquired substantial experience in the industry. His career began as a private client stockbroker at Walker Crips and Phillip Securities (now King and Shaxson), following internships on the NYMEX oil trading floor in New York and London IPE in 2001 and 2000.
Richard’s contributions and expertise have been recognized by respected publications such as The Sunday Times, BusinessInsider, Yahoo Finance, BusinessNews.org.uk, Master Investor, Wealth Briefing, iNews, and The FT, among many others.
Under Richard’s leadership, the Good Money Guide has evolved into a valuable destination for comprehensive information and expert guidance, specialising in trading, investment, and currency exchange. His commitment to delivering high-quality insights has solidified the Good Money Guide’s standing as a well-respected resource for both customers and industry colleagues.
