Google joins “3T Club”, Tesla rallies above $400 & breakfast gets expensive

In this week’s Global Macro analysis (sponsored by Capital.com), we look ahead to a pivotal Fed meeting, explore surging tech stocks, what’s happening with silver prices, and warn of a looming coffee price shock.

All eyes on Fed this week

This week is an important week for central banks. The Bank of England MPC will report on Thursday. All eyes, however, will be directed to the Federal Reserve. The FOMC will host its sixth meeting of the year this week and debate whether to drop interest rates.

The market is expecting that it will. Weakening economic data is weighing on the minds of Fed officials. The base case is 25 bps. But a few, such as Standard Chartered, are predicting a bigger chop (50bps) to the Fed Funds Rate. High uncertainties around a Fed meeting is not unusual. But what is interesting about this FOMC gathering is the intense political tussle behind the scene (eg, Lisa Cook’s attendance drama).

But, the deeper question is what comes next. Will the Fed embark on a multi-quarter easing cycle? Or is this rate cut a one-off thing? Nobody knows for sure. Every word on the FOMC statement, naturally, will be scrutinised. Clues will be found in the Fed’s text reports and press speeches. Market reaction will be immediate.

At this point, the US stock market is humming along nicely. Financial markets are a discounting machine. Lower future debt costs certainly are buoying asset prices. US Treasury bonds, particularly long-maturity, have enjoyed a good bounce in recent days (a market trend I highlighted last week).

In the equity space, the blue-chip S&P 500 hit fresh highs, as did the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Industrial. A few stocks are in definitive, perhaps parabolic, uptrends.

Oracle (ORCL), under the leadership of Larry Ellison, is the latest big tech to hit the AI jackpot. ORCL’s share prices soared when it unveiled rising orders for its tech wares. A rising tide (AI) does lift all boats. The NYSE-listed tech behemoth ended the week with a market cap of $830 billion (13th largest in the world), briefly making Larry the richest man on earth ($390 billion by some calculations).

Another big tech to hit new all-time highs was Broadcom (AVGO), which gapped up to $375. Its rally into the $400 level remains on track.

As for Google (GOOG), it also gapped up to new highs on receding threat of a corporate breakup. Prices are high enough to push its market cap past the $3 trillion mark on September 15. This is, if I remember the numbers correctly, the first time in stock market history that the top four stocks in the world belong to the “3T Club”. Nvidia (NVDA) is leading the tech/AI charge, followed by Microsoft (MSFT) , Apple (AAPL) and Google (see below).

Next in line to join the elite four is Amazon (AMZN), although it requires another 20 per cent plus gain from here. A decisive breakout above $240 could be a technical catalyst to achieve this.

Overall, it seems that the tech boom remains very much intact.

Source: companiesmarketcap.com (15 Sep 2025)

Tesla breaks out!

Having lost the ‘world’s richest’ crown last week, Elon Musk retook that title back quickly.

Tesla (TSLA) soared towards the end of last week when news emerged that the founder had bought $1 billion worth of Tesla stock. The stock gapped up through the $400 resistance area with ease; and generated enough price momentum to challenge the 2024 peak (see below).

This stunning rally has put billions back into Musk’s wealth pot again ($400bn – see bloomberg.com/billionaires). But he has another spectacular pay deal coming up. The Tesla board, noting Muck’s absence earlier this year, has re-negotiated and proposed another monster pay package for the founder-CEO.

This time, the board has set out clear metrics for Elon Musk to attain – metrics that include TSLA’s market cap, vehicle sales etc – before he can claim all the rewards. But the total package is unbelievably and staggeringly large: $1 trillion. It would be interesting to see if Musk, one of the greatest entrepreneurs of his generation, can keep pace with the rapid changes in the AI-EV landscape and push Tesla to the forefront of the expanding tech sector.

The more relevant issue for traders is whether one should dive back into Tesla stock. Well, the opportunity to buy Tesla below $360 was opened for several months. If missed, the risk-reward for new buys now is quite unfavourable, since prices could easily retrace to test $400 as support. Thus, if long, a smaller position size is recommended at this point and watch to add on a retracement.

 

Silver extends rally

When silver is in an affirmative bull market, nothing can stop its spectacular rise.

I have highlighted this metal several times in the recent past, and mentioned its potential to match gold’s rally. So far, this view remains intact. Silver’s price trend is heading north; while its relative performance against gold is slowly gaining ground. This means that silver is likely to surpass the $50 peak established back in 2011.

The equivalent peak for the Silver ETF (SLV) is $48 (see below). If prices do rally all the way there in the next few weeks, watch for a sharp consolidation around that zone. Silver’s rally would be overbought at that level. But, do not be shaken out completely. Partial profit taking, but leave some positions open and see if prices do “moon” over the medium term.

 

Lastly, breakfast is about to become pricier!

With so much wealth ‘created’ from the stock market (many stocks worth $500 billion or more!), this paper wealth has to go somewhere.

Some went to Bitcoin; some flowed to gold/silver; some ended up in real estate. A small portion went to real commodities.

In 2023/2024, cocoa surged 8x. The result is a “cocoa crisis“, which is engulfing many brands such as Hershey (HSY).

Now, a crisis is about to slam into coffee.  Raw coffee prices have shot up 3x in 18 months and the uptrend is not breaking. Since July, prices have soared 50 percent (see below). An upside breakout looms.

Whenever a food commodity surges like this, it brings about negative real-world consequences. Starbucks (SBUX), one of the largest coffee chains in the world, could be vulnerable to a further slide into the $70s.