Pound To New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Is Now The Best Time To Buy NZD From GBP?

GBPNZD Highlights

• GBPNZD trades within a strict range at 2.20-2.35
• Reserve Bank of NZ eyes an end to the accommodative monetary cycle but is held back by a weak economy
• Until the economic outlook clarifies, GBPNZD may continue to bounce sideways

How has the Pound performed against the New Zealand Dollar recently?

The past year saw GBPNZD trade in an uninspiring manner. Prices ticked up, only to see these gains evaporate a little while later. The drop in Q1 was largely wiped off soon after.

Upside, clearly, is capped at 2.350 while support at 2.23 is holding the rate firmly. In recent weeks, the rate is bouncing around in the lower half of this range (2.24-2.32). This is likely due to modest Sterling weakness.

Chartwise, there is nothing to suggest that this sideways trend is ending any time soon. Insufficient disequilibrium to knock the rate higher (GBP stronger); and weak buying of NZDs to break the floor at 2.22.

Looking forward, the flattish pattern – marked two paralleled blue lines – may stretch further. The market awaits a new consensus trade.

Is it a good time to buy the New Zealand Dollar with pounds?

GBP had a sharp bounce against NZD in recent days. Prices gained from 2.250 to 2.300 in a matter of days.

This unexpected GBP strength could be a good catalyst to off-load some Sterling for NZ Dollars. There appears plenty of supply above 2.320 and I’m not sure if prices can break north ofthis dense selling zone.

Of course, you may wait further to achieve a better rate (above 2.32). But this is exchanging some marginal gain for added waiting time.

Will the pound get stronger against the NZD in 2025?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been cutting rates through 2024 and 2025. But at 2.25 percent, the rate-cutting cycle appears to be over.

In fact, since the outbreak of the Iranian conflict, the central bank has been monitoring the inflation trend closely and eyeing a potential raise. According to the bank’s May economic outlook, inflation is rising but not in a manner that will automatically trigger rate increases.

In essence, the central bank’s inflation outlook assumes that inflation will gradually decline in the next few quarters and this may reduce the urgency to hike rates (see below). The eventual conclusion of the Gulf conflict (and re-opening the Strait of Hormuz) will further the reason to adopt a more monetary hawkish outlook.

Source: RBNZ (May 2026)

Another reason that the market suspects that RBNZ will not hike interest rates much is because of the weak domestic economy. In May, for example, the RBNZ observed critically:

Domestically, business contacts and surveys indicate weaker confidence and spending. For some firms, rising costs are squeezing profit
margins and curbing investment and hiring intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, and the housing market remains weak.

In particular, the central bank is worried about the labour market. Wage inflation has been really weak since 2023 and there is plenty of spare capacity in the market. A rate hike will certainly crush any ‘green shoot’ in this area of the economy.

The chart below captures this worrying trend. Many labour surveys are pointing towards a weak position (blue squares), in stark contrast to the position in 2021-2022.

In sum, the market is waiting to see if the central bank will tighten despite the slack in the domestic growth. No one is sure how things will turn out yet and therefore the GBPNZD rate is stuck in a range.

Source: RBNZ (May 2026)

What is the GBPNZD forecast in weeks, months, and years?

The market consensus for the GBPNZD, at this point, is uniformly bullish on the Kiwi Dollar.

Most of the forecasts are lower than the current price at 2.30, even taking into account the wide Forecast Range (see below).

But are these brokers too bullish on NZD? Technically it is hard to fault these predictions because prices are currently at of the top of the range. The next support resides at 2.22 with enough room for the rate to fall.

Source: poundsterlinglive.com (Jun 2026)