Pound To Japanese Yen Forecast – Is Now The Best Time To Buy JPY From GBP?

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The pound-to-Japanese Yen forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPJPY price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy Japanese Yen, or if you should wait until the price improves further.

GBPJPY Price1 Day Change1 Week Change1 Month Change1 Year Change
195.011-1.27%-1.27%3.01%8.64%

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GBPJPY Forecast Highlights

  • The Japanese Yen’s weakness renewed after August’s brief appreciation
  • GBPJPY is testing the psychological 200 again; watch for a counter-trend reaction here
  • Multiple macro forces to test the Yen’s current rate of decline

How has the Pound performed against the Japanese Yen recently?

The Japanese Yen, after displaying a flash of strength in August, resumes its negative trend again.

Since my last update on this rate back in June, GBPJPY did three things. It broke through the 200 psychological level, regressed steeply, and then rebounded back near 200. The August regression was a gargantuan 25-point move in a matter of days (see below). In financial markets, counter-trend moves are always more violent. So, the ‘August tantrum’ should not be too surprising to seasoned traders as the rate has been moving in one direction for 18 months.

After this wide fluctuation, what next? Are we going to see new long-term highs here (in favour of GBP) soon? Based on GBPJPY’s long-term trend, the answer seems affirmative. The rate re-tested the 185 lows and found strong support there. The problem now is that the rate is slightly overstretched in one direction. Prices had already advanced for 15 points in less than eight weeks; a correction may happen soon, especially when most positions are gradually stacked on one side.

Of course, this is not to say the rate will not go further, breaking 200 even. The national election in late October was a Yen-negative event (the ruling party lost its majority). Traders may punish the Yen further.

 

Is it a good time to buy Japanese Yen in pounds?

Sterling has been strengthening against the Japanese Yen for quite some time.

Any reversal of this long-term trend appears to be short-lived. Therefore, further gains for GBP far more intuitive than going against the grain.

But, I would not buy all my Yen in one transaction. Buy some when the rate touches major round number levels, like 200, 210 etc. If you do need the currency now, buying some at this level probably makes sense as the rate approaches the lowest level in years.

Will the pound get stronger against the JPY in 2025?

For the Pound-Yen rate, there is only one question worth asking: Is this uptrend (GBP stronger) set to continue next year?

Trend-followers – traders who steadfastly follow an instrument’s price trend – will answer ‘yes’ without a moment’s hesitation. Look at GBPJPY’s weekly chart. In a clear uptrend and near long-term highs. But economic forces are turbulent these days. Macro conditions that made last year’s trend may change next year. Nothing in financial markets is set in stone.

The first event on the horizon that could knock the trend out of its line is the UK’s Autumn Budget. Will this event cause Pound Sterling to weaken? The market is waiting for the details to emerge this very week (Oct 30) by the Chancellor, who is focussing on raising taxes.

The next item is the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy. So far, the central bank has raised the policy rate twice in 2024. The last one was back in July (see below). Will the governor push the borrowing costs further? In the near term, the answer seems to be a no. This is due to the ongoing political uncertainty. But things may change going forward.

Why is this factor important? Because there is a huge stack of money riding on the ‘Yen Carry Trade’, which involves borrowing the cheap yen and investing the proceeds in higher-interest currencies like GBP.  A sudden unwinding of this trade is what caused GBPJPY to drop sharply last August. (See here for a quick overview of how this trade impact the Yen.)

Moreover, should the global economy wobble in the next few quarters and push the panicky Fed into a furious rate-cut mode, it may also cause Yen-related pairs to swing violently. Another factor that impacts the Yen is the looming US election.

In sum, while GBPJPY looks like it may extend the trend further, bear in mind that there are many economic and political factors that could hamper – or even reverse – this trend. Stay alert and set appropriate stops.

 

What is the GBPJPY forecast in weeks, months, and years?

For the past two years GBPJPY, unlike GBPEUR, tends to trend. This is due to Yen’s weakness.

Still, a pullback of some sorts is envisaged due to GBPJPY’s overbought momentum near the major level at 200. In the next few weeks, a few analysts expect the rate to hit that resistance and then pull back to 190 (see below).

But these expectations could change drastically should new factors emerge. Expect GBPJPY range in between 200-190 for the time being.

Source: fxstreet.com (Oct 2024)

Where is the best place for buying large amounts of Japanese Yen from Pounds

There are two different ways people buy JPY from Pounds

You can use our comparison table of currency brokers to see how many currencies they offer, what the minimum JPY transfer is and if they offer forwards and currency options as well as when they were established. You can either visit each currency broker individually or use our currency quote comparison tool to request multiple exchange rates.

Or, if you are more interested in trading GBPJPY, you can compare forex brokers here.

The current GBPJPY exchange rate is 195.011 which is a change of -1.27% from the previous days closing price. Over a week GBPJPY is -1.27%, compared to it’s change over a month of 3.01% and one year of 8.64%.

GBPJPY exchange rate data is updated every 15 minutes.

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