In this week’s podcast, Michael Brown (Senior Market Strategist from Pepperstone) and I look back at this week’s UK wages and inflation numbers and what it means for the prospect of further rate cuts from the Bank of England. We also analyse the decision by the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25bps as expected, but in a surprise move they decided to rein back their expectations for rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2.
Listen on Spotify
Watch on Youtube
Takeaways
- The focus is shifting towards 2025 and its economic outlook.
- UK unemployment remains steady at 4.3%, but concerns persist.
- Wage growth is significantly above the Bank of England’s targets.
- Inflation is expected to remain above target for an extended period.
- The retail sector faces challenges due to rising costs and competition.
- Manufacturing in the UK is showing signs of weakness.
- The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut has led to increased bond yields.
- Market reactions indicate a divergence in interest rates between the US and Europe.
- Stagflation poses a significant risk for the UK economy in 2025.
- Fiscal policy decisions may have political motivations rather than economic ones.
Chapters
- Looking Ahead to 2025: Market Insights
- UK Economic Indicators: A Grim Outlook
- Inflation and Wage Growth: The Stagflation Threat
- Retail Sector Challenges: The Impact of Rising Costs
- Global Economic Sentiment: Manufacturing and Services PMI
- The Fed’s Rate Decisions: Implications for 2025
- Market Reactions: Bond Yields and Economic Signals
- Central Bank Strategies: The Path Forward
- Political Implications: Fiscal Events and Economic Policy
- Final Thoughts: Preparing for 2025
Michael Hewson has over 30 years of experience in the financial markets and brings a wealth of expertise and a passion for stock market analysis to the Good Money Guide podcast. As the former Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets, Michael led a talented team of in-house analysts, providing daily insights, research, and market commentary to both retail and institutional investors and traders, as well as being regulatory featured on the mainstream financial media worldwide like the BBC and Bloomberg.
Michael is renowned for delivering award-winning forecasts and timely, accurate analysis and was nominated twice in the City AM Award category of “Analyst of the Year” in 2019, and 2021, receiving a high commendation in 2019 for the coverage of Uber and Lyft IPOs and predicting that the Fed would cut rates that year.
Michael is committed to empowering traders and investors. With prestigious MSTA and CFTe credentials, he has been honored by CityAM, the Professional Trader Awards, and FXWeek for his contributions to the industry. His extensive media experience, spanning TV, radio, online, and live events, has made him a respected educator, dedicated to helping audiences make confident, informed decisions.
You can contact Michael on michael@goodmoneyguide.com
