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This morning, Richard asked me what I thought about WPP. I was unequivocal in my response, saying that :
“I think it’s finished as it was/is. A smaller, more nimble biz might survive, but it seems more likely that AI-driven peers/start-ups will outmanoeuvre it”
I came to that conclusion nine months ago or more, when I came across a US TV ad that had been created using AI, for 95.0% less than the cost of a traditional production process.
I said then that it was a game-changer and negative for old school big media/ad makers, etc with the potential to reshape the AD-Tech landscape.
Of course, 9 months is an eternity in the world of AI and it’s becoming ever clearer that expertise and asset creation are no longer exclusive in the media.
See my LinkedIn post on the same https://shorturl.at/gQurz
WPP are down -62.0% in the last 52 weeks, and I can’t see what can stop them sliding further over time.
Howard Marks, CEO of Oaktree Capital Management, which runs around US$218.0 billion wrote a well publicises article on S&P returns. this time last year. In the note he looked at the correlation between current S&P 500 PE ratios and future 10-year returns in the index. the data. which stretched back 27 years, suggested that:
“When people bought the S&P at p/e ratios in line with today’s multiple of 22, they always earned ten-year returns between plus 2% and minus 2%.”
The current FWD PE for the index is 22.1 times earnings and the index itself is up by just +1.02% year to date.
My honest opinion is that there is just too much going on at a macro level to be making longer term predictions about the index performance, over the balance of the year. If issues such as Greenland, the reprise of Trump Tariffs, and possibility of conflict with Iran resolve themselves in the next couple of months.
Then we could see another rally, but without that, I am thinking that we will see a year of mediocre/subpar returns from the S&P 500.
However, if January is anything to go by, it will be a very good year for stock picking and tactical trading.
I think there are a number of reasons for the underperformance of eToro’s stock since it IPO’d.
However, it seems to me that the main factors behind the share price fall are geographic and cultural differences.I say that because, unlike rivals such as Robinhood eToro’s clients base is international rather than US focused. Ss of the end of 2024 just 10.0% of eToro’s clients were in the US. What’s more retail OTC trading, which still makes up a large portion of eToro’s turnover is somewhat alien to US investors, not least because over-the-counter trading in the US is off limits to most retail clients.
A downturn in the crypto markets, which kicked off in August last year can also be blamed. It’s my understanding that crypto trading is a higher margin business for the firm so a prolonged downturn, in a largely sentiment driven asset class, would likely dent the firms revenues. And that could be a factor behind the recent news of headcount reduction.
For eToro to shine I think it will need to demonstrate that it’s growing its US business, and show that it can profitably participate in on exchange trading, particularly in growth areas like OTDE options.
US markets didn’t perform particularly well in 2025 for example, over the last 12 months the S&P 500 was up by +16.92%. However, the Spanish Ibex 35 posted gains of almost +50.0% in that 12 month period and several smaller European indices did even better. Slovenia’s SBITOP Index is up 5+4.0% over the last year, but even that is knocked into a cocked hat by the gain seen in the Euro Stoxx Banks Index that was was up 75.37$ during the last 12 months.
If we are looking for markets that could outperform in 2026, year to date gains might provide an indicator. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up by +8.25% in 2026 already and Bulgaria’s SOFIX index has risen by an impressive +18.62 YTD.
And we shouldn’t over look South Korea where the Kospi Composite Index, which rose by some +90.0% in 2025, has added +8.89% since the turn of the year.
Goldman Sachs shared a video this week setting out its view on South Korean equity indices on which they are bullish. The bank cites the countries exposure to AI and silicon chips, improving corporate governance what’s more Goldman flags that some 70% of Korean stocks, are trading below one times book value compared to less than 40.0% for the constituents of Japan’s topic index.
Retail investors in the UK wont find it easy to trade in individual Korean stocks, however, the are ETFs that track South Korean stocks. For example the iShares plc MSCI Korea UCITS ETF (Dist) which trades under the ticker IKOR.L, which rose by 88.90% over the last year and is up 6.55% ytd.
In conclusion then, there are markets that outperformed the US significantly in 2025 and there are several contenders that may repeat the trick in 2026.
Fund investing is a thorny subject the sad truth is that few actively managed funds will beat their benchmarks, in any given year and fewer still will manage to do that on a consistent basis.
Against that when you buy a fund you are outsourcing the management of your money to an expert/team of experts, in their field. And that appeals to many investors, who don’t have the time, inclination or expertise to do this for themselves.
That’s particularly true when it comes to niche areas such as Bonds and Emerging Markets.
Buying an index tracker, especially a low cost one that tracks US blue chip equities has been something of a no brainier post covid. However, the magnificent 7 haven’t really performed in 2025. And if we look at the markets that produced the biggest bang for buck this year (in US$ terms) then Korea, Greece, Spain, South Africa, Mexico, Italy and Brazil, all knocked the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, in to a cocked hat.
in terms of sector and asset class performance Banks, Telecoms. precious metals and the Swiss franc were among the top performers. And if the US dollar remains weak (dollar index is well below 100 and is down -9.48% year to date) then it seems likely to me that these trends could continue into 2026.
If you are looking for a contrarian trade/fund in which to park some of your portfolio then Indian Equities have underperformed their EM and DM counterparts, and remain just above their 200 D moving average.
Closer to home France may present an opportunity with French stocks having lagged peers in Germany, Spain and Italy during 2025.
To get the most from these ideas spending some time researching fund mangers with expertise in the sectors and geographies is probably a good use of your time.
This is a great question and my answer is timely and topical, because my stock pick is Broadcom AVGO US. A $1.95 trillion designer, developer and supplier of semiconductors.
Broadcom’s stock price has risen consistently in recent times its added +630.0% in the last three years for example. But its also delivered on an earnings front with 5 year revenue growth of +128.23%, five year Earnings growth of 113.22%, and five year dividend growth of +99.06%.
Broadcom reported earnings after the close last night(11/12/25)beating on both the top and bottom lines and both operating and free cash flow margins were higher, when compared to last year.
True the stock price sold off in the post market, but to my mind a dip or pull back could present an attractive entry point.
Going forward the markets focus will be on the monetization of Broadcom’s recent deal with Google – for whom it will help manufacture TPU chips, designed to compet5e directly with Nvidia’s AI offerings.
Broadcom confirmed yesterday that Anthropic is among the first customers for the new TPUS the owner of
Claude placed an Order worth $10.0 bln back in September, and has followed that up with a new order worth $11.0 bln.Broadcom has a lot to shoot for here, and it must deliver on this potential, if it is to keep traders happy. However the firms track record with hardware is excellent, so I am not expecting too many issues, barring any unforeseen problems at TSMCs foundries.
When it comes to the FTSE 100 Index will it, or won’t it reach 10,000? Is the question on most investors’ minds.
As I type we are some 450 points or approximately -5.0% beneath that round number.
The index has added +15.39% year to date, so we would need to see that jump by+ 30.0% to hit the target, and that might be asking too much before year end.
On a five year view the index has rallied +50.0% and to some extent the OoVID 19 downturn has faded from our memory.
If we are to see the index at, and above 10,000 I think it’s more likely to happen in 2026.
And the move may be driven by external factors
Let’s not forget that 70.0% or more of FTSE 100 revenues are generated abroad and not in the UK. Stocks that have performed well in the index over the last 52 weeks included silver miner Fresnilo +258.0%, which has benefited from a weak dollar, combined with fears about global inflation, and excessive national debt levels.
That said, some businesses that make their money in the domestic economy have also fared well, with retailer Next and bankers Natwest Group, up by +47.0% and +46.0% respectively.
There is also a certain amount of survivorship bias in the FTSE 100 index, whose constituents are reviewed on a quarterly basis.
Weak links such as WPP -61.0% and B&M European Value Retail down -50.71%, could well find themselves demoted in the December reshuffle.
From an investors perspective the +3.18% dividend yield offered by the FTSE 100 remains attractive.
FTSE 100 dividends make up the bulk of the £24.60 billion, paid out by uk companies in Q3 2025.
And despite concerns about the health of both the domestic and global economies, we saw dividend increases in 17 out 21 uk sectors in Q3 year over year ,with 8 out of every10 dividend payers, either holding or increasing their dividend.
Overall then there are reasons to be optimistic about the prospects of the FTSE 100.
However there is an elephant in the room in the shape of the forthcoming UK budget.The biggest risk from which would be the introduction of measures that hurt investor confidence.
Particularly, if those measures spook the bond markets ,drive up borrowing costs, and perhaps precipitate a fiscal crisis in the UK.
If only we had a crystal ball that allowed us to see into the future and to time the market to our advantage.
Sadly, we don’t have that ability, but what we do have are history and statistics to look back on.
The numbers tell us that the longer we are in the market, the lower the chance of realising a loss on our investment, simply because over time markets tend to go up.
Statistics don’t tell the whole story, and it’s also true to say that everyone’s financial circumstances are different, but by and large, most retail investors will be better off by making regular contributions/investments into a diversified portfolio, and leaving that to grow over time rather than trying to identify the optimum point at which to take the plunge.
Though, of course, we need to bear in mind that past returns are no guarantee of future performance.
If you are looking to trade the market rather than invest, then it’s a slightly different story.
Buying the dip has been a profitable strategy over the last 5 years and beyond, and given that September has the worst-performing month in the S&P 500 on average since 1928, there may be an opportunity to do so again.
However, we will need to consider the context of any dip and its causes, and the prospects for a rebound before doing so. And here I am thinking of the influence and performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks in the US, which are so dominant in driving market sentiment.
You can find more analysis of the markets here:https://goodmoneyguide.com/analysis/
I hadn’t come across this stock before your post, and I have to say that its performance has been impressive to say the least.
In fact, much more so than its underlying business of making components for LCD monitors in China would suggest is warranted.
Clearly, something else is going on here that the wider market is not privy to.
It sounds as though you are under no illusions about this one and are keeping a watching brief.
Whilst it’s going up on good volume, that’s probably the right way to be.
However, stocks like this have a nasty habit of reversing without much warning, so top slicing your position on the way up or taking out the original investment you put in, if you haven’t done so already, might also be worth considering.
This is not investment advice, always do your own research.