Today’s Fresnillo (LON:FRES) share price is 555p (as of 29/09/2023 12:33) which is a change of 8 or 1.46% from the last closing price of 555 with 157,360 shares traded giving LON:FRES a market capitalisation of £4,098,992,277. The most recent daily high has been 560 and daily low 551. The LON:FRES share price 52 week high has been 996.8 and the 52 week low 499.3. Based on the most recent LON:FRES share price opening of 555, the current LON:FRES EPS (earnings per share) are 0.25 and the PE (price earnings ratio) is 22.63.
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Any keen reader of news would have seen screens of plunging prices in the digital markets lately. Worse still, crypto exchanges are in big trouble. FTX, led by former billionaire Sam Friedman, is probably insolvent and in need of a multi-billion rescue. This is causing a contagion run in many other exchanges. Who’s next (see our Coinbase share price analysis here)? Nobody knows. Spooked, investors and speculators stampeded out of crypto into ‘safer’ assets like gold and silver.
Compare silver’s price move below against that of BTC. The former appears to have completed a multi-month base breakout by closing above the $21 resistance, while BTC sinks into 18-month lows. Silver’s relative performance is bullish.
Unsurprisingly, silver’s rally dragged up most other precious metal shares, including that of Fresnillo (FRES) – the world’s largest silver miner. Fresnillo first listed in 2008, and the Mexico-based company is currently listed in the LSE as a FTSE 100 component. Its market cap is a sizeable £6.3 billion. The main assets of Fresnillo are silver and gold mines located in Mexico.
Is Fresnillo a good buy?
But, is Fresnillo a good investment? Yes, but on one condition. Don’t overpay for the stock. Why? Because the mining industry is a cyclical one. investors should buy the sector when sentiment is bearish; and sell when it is bullish. There appears to be a ceiling (£20) and floor (£6) on Fresnillo’s long-term chart.
The best time to buy Fresnillo’s shares is when the entire precious metal complex is rising and when the stock market is not in a severe bear market.
Look at Fresnillo’s chart below and compare that to the silver price trend in the lower panel:
Fresnillo’s share price tends to rally when silver metal prices are rising. Three such instances were noted in the past decade: During 2010-11, 2016-17 and 2020-21. In each bull run, Fresnillo’s share price appreciated by more than 100%.
View another way, Fresnillo’s share is a “geared play” on silver. The best time to buy Fresnillo is when its share price breakouts of a base.
This is a matter of opinion at the moment.
For Fresnillo, its production of raw metal ores is steady; whilst its all-in margin remains healthy (see below). Moreover, there are some development projects in the pipeline (eg Juanicipio). By most statistics, Fresnillo appears to be a profitable miner (1H profit is $141 million).
But at the price-earnings ratio in excess of 30 and a dividend yield of just 2.6 percent, Fresnillo may seem a little pricey. That said, the stock market can value a miner highly for years. I would not be too perturbed by this.
Fresnillo is doing relatively well these days because of three reasons:
- Silver and gold are rallying into new multi-week highs
- A rebound in stock markets
- Stable production of silver and gold in Fresnillo mines.
More importantly, downside surprises were absent in Fresnillo’s recent report (released October 26). Hence, Fresnillo’s share price is rallying healthily along with silver.
Until a few weeks ago, the market was soaked in negative sentiment. Investors were expecting very hawkish monetary policies; and gold and silver prices were on the cusp of a downside breakout.
That’s why most analysts are still putting a ‘Hold’ recommendation on Fresnillo.
Will Fresnillo’s base breakout change this? Perhaps. In markets, prices often run ahead of the fundamental reports. Should Fresnillo break above the psychological 1,000p ceiling, analysts may start to revise up their price targets.
Source: Financial Times
|Date||Broker name||New||Price||Old price target||New price target|
|14-Oct-22||JP Morgan Cazenove||Neutral||702.2||800||750|