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Ed Sheldon CFAParticipantTaking a bearish view on WPP is probably the right call I think.
Generative AI is a huge threat to this company. Today, AI can develop marketing campaigns, do keyword research, write copy, and create marketing materials. So, there are major structural challenges here (Sam Altman has said that AI will replace 95% of marketing work). Looking ahead, I’d expect to see companies do a lot of their marketing in house using AI tools.
Turning to the company’s financials, they are very weak. For 2025, revenue was down 8.1% year on year on a reported basis to £13,550 million. Meanwhile operating profit was down 22.6% to £1,321 million (down 71% to £382 million on a reported basis). At the end of the year, adjusted net debt was £2,167 million versus £1,742 million a year earlier (this debt is an issue now that interest rates may stay higher for longer).
As for the technicals, they’re terrible as well. Right now, this stock is locked in a nasty downtrend. With brokers aggressively reducing their earnings forecasts for this year and next, the trend is likely to remain down. Zooming in on the short interest, it’s high at 6.5% (nine funds have declared short positions to the FCA), so institutions clearly see further share price downside.
Put all this together, and the picture doesn’t look good. I reckon there’s a good chance that the stock will continue to fall. That said, for those puts to pay off, you do need a significant drop in the next nine months and that’s not guaranteed. There is a chance that WPP could find some support around the 200p level.
Ed Sheldon CFAParticipantThere are lots of reasons to be bullish on the S&P 500 index right now.
For a start, the tech companies at the top of the index look poised for another year of strong growth. Nvidia, for example, is expected to see 54% revenue growth over the next year.
Secondly, the index is broadening out. Today, the S&P 500 is no longer only about tech – lots of sectors are doing well including Healthcare, Materials, and Industrials.
Third, corporate earnings are expected to grow at a healthy rate in the near term. According to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings are projected to increase 15% this year.
All that said, I expect to see volatility this year. With Donald Trump in the White House, there are going to be plenty of unexpected tweets/announcements that cause investor anxiety – this could put a cap on index growth.
Another issue is interest rates. If these don’t come down as expected, it could lead to stock market volatility.
One other issue to think about is valuations. Currently, the median P/E ratio across the S&P 500 on a forward-looking basis is about 20, which is quite high.
As for how high the index can go in 2026, I’m going to say that it can hit 7,400 at some point this year. That’s about 6% above today’s level.
For what it’s worth, here are some year-end targets from major Wall Street firms:
Goldman Sachs – 7,600
JP Morgan – 7,500
Morgan Stanley – 7,800
Oppenheimer – 8,100
Deutsche Bank – 8,000
Citigroup – 7,700
UBS – 7,700
Bank of America – 7,100Looking at these targets, the consensus view is that the S&P 500 index is going to have another decent year.
15th January 2026 at 12:32 pm in reply to: Can any other index beat the US stock markets in 2026? #161555
Ed Sheldon CFAParticipantI don’t like to bet against the US market (the S&P 500 index). Because it has a fantastic long-term track record.
However, some indexes that could potentially beat the S&P 500 this year include:
* The S&P Equal Weight index: Late last year, investors started to rotate out of the technology sector and into other sectors such as Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials. If this trend continues in 2026 (I think it might), the S&P 500 Equal Weight index could outperform the S&P 500 (which is heavily weighted to technology stocks).
* The Stoxx Europe 600 index: This European index (which includes UK stocks) has a large weighting to banks and industrials – two sectors that are performing well right now. I think there’s a reasonable chance that it could outperform the S&P 500 this year, especially if US tech stocks underperform.
* MSCI World Healthcare index: Healthcare stocks could be a major beneficiary of the broadening out of the market. These stocks offer a nice mix of growth and defence and right now, the sector is attractively valued.
* S&P GSCI Precious Metals index: This is a commodities index that provides exposure to precious metals (ie gold and silver). Gold and silver are both flying right now due to high levels of geopolitical and economic uncertainty – if this trend continues, this index could do well in 2026.
I think the key for investors this year is asset class, geographic, and sector diversification. Aim to build a portfolio that has exposure to many different asset classes, geographic regions and sectors – this should pay off.
Ed Sheldon CFAParticipanteToro shares have not performed well since the IPO. As I write this, they’re trading at $31 – about 40% below the IPO price of $52.
It’s hard to know exactly why the share price has tanked. I think it’s probably related to a few different factors including:
* Competition: eToro operates in a very competitive industry and it’s up against some very powerful players. Earlier this month, analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to ‘neutral’ on the back of competition concerns.
* Robinhood: Rival Robinhood is having a great deal of success right now. I feel like there’s a view in the market that this company is going to be the long-term winner with younger investors. Note that Robinhood has been expanding into Europe recently (eToro’s main market).
* Prediction markets: Prediction markets have taken off recently. eToro doesn’t offer this yet (it’s planning to launch this feature later in 2026).
* Crypto weakness: eToro is a major crypto trading platform. And crypto has been weak recently – Bitcoin is well off its highs. It’s worth noting that interest in Bitcoin has been declining. It seems young investors are focusing on other areas of the financial markets right now (e.g. prediction markets).
* Profitability: eToro’s profit margins are well below the industry average.
Personally, I wouldn’t short the stock. Because the valuation is quite low now. According to Stockopedia, analysts are looking for earnings per share of $2.69 this year. That puts the stock on a forward-looking P/E ratio of just 11.5. I don’t see a lot of downside at that valuation. But I could be wrong.
Ed Sheldon CFAParticipantDepends what you are looking for but as a growth/quality investor, I like the Blue Whale Growth fund. This is a concentrated, growth-focused global equity fund managed by Stephen Yiu.
Yiu is good at identifying growth themes and capitalising on them. For example, he’s made a ton of money for investors in recent years on the AI buildout theme.
Not only has he made a killing on Nvidia, but he has also done well with stocks like Broadcom, Lam Research, Taiwan Semi, and Vertiv (these stocks were all in the top 10 holdings at the end of November).
In terms of performance, the fund has a really good track record. Since its inception in 2017, it has returned about 220%. That translates to a return of around 15-16% per year.
This year, it returned 25.7% to the end of November. That’s well ahead of the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI indexes.
I’ll point out that this fund can be quite volatile at times. When there’s market weakness, losses can be magnified due to its growth/technology focus.
In 2022, for example, when the market fell, the fund returned -27.6%. So, it may not be suitable for those seeking capital preservation.
If an investor is seeking long-term growth, however, I see this fund as a nice complement to a standard index tracker fund. It’s structured very differently to the average index tracker and has more growth potential in the long run.
11th December 2025 at 3:15 pm in reply to: If you could only own one US stock, what would it be? #161563
Ed Sheldon CFAParticipantFor me it would be Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).
Why? Well I’d want a company that operates in many different industries (to reduce my risk) and Amazon fits the bill here.
Today, it operates in a range of areas including online shopping, cloud computing, artificial intelligence (including AI chips), digital advertising, digital healthcare, space satellites, robotics, and self-driving cars.
I’d also want a company that has plenty of long-term growth potential. Looking at those industries above, Amazon certainly has this.
Zooming in on the cloud computing industry, it’s set to grow by more than 20% per year between 2024 and 2030 according to analysts at Goldman Sachs (to hit $2 trillion). Amazon is well placed to capitalise on this growth given that it’s the biggest player in the industry.
It’s worth noting here that Amazon has plans to be a one-stop shop for AI in the future. In the same way that it offers a comprehensive retail shopping platform for consumers today, it plans to offer a comprehensive AI platform for businesses in which all kinds of AI tools are available.
Additionally, I’d want a company that has strong financials and Amazon fits the bill here. This is a company with a strong balance sheet, a high return on equity, and rising profits.
One other thing I like about this stock is the valuation. Currently, the P/E ratio is under 30 and near a historical low.
Put all this together and the investment case looks pretty compelling, in my view.
Ed Sheldon CFAParticipantI wouldn’t be surprised to see the FTSE 100 hit 10,000 in 2026. Here are five reasons why:
* We’re in the midst of a powerful bull market in global equities right now. I think there’s a decent chance this bull market will continue in 2026 as economic growth is solid and corporate earnings are rising.
* The Footsie’s valuation isn’t that high at the moment. Currently, the median forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio across the index is 13.3, according to Stockopedia. That compares to 18.4 for the S&P 500 index.
* Many stocks in the index with large weightings still look good value to me. Some examples here include HSBC, GSK, and Barclays, which are all trading on P/E ratios of 10 or less.
* To get to 10,000, the index would only need to rise around 5% from here. I think that the Footsie is capable of producing that kind of gain at some stage during the year.
* After a period of weakness, the Healthcare sector has started to perform recently. A continuation of this trend should help the Footsie as AstraZeneca is the largest weighting in the index and GSK also has a decent weighting.
Of course, there are no guarantees that the FTSE 100 will hit 10,000 next year. 2025 has been a strong year for the index so we could potentially see a period of consolidation next year where the index trades sideways. I’m optimistic that it will hit 10,000 at some stage though.
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