The pound-to-US dollar forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPUSD price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy Dollars, or if you should wait until the price improves.
| GBPUSD Price | 1 Day Change | 1 Week Change | 1 Month Change | 1 Year Change |
| 1.330575 | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.57% | 4.86% |
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GBPUSD Forecast Highlights
- GBPUSD rallies to 1.340, largely driven by a weakening dollar
- Technical resistance noted at previous peak near 1.350; may lead to a retracement back to 1.300
- Macro uncertainty is growing due to US tariffs. A global economic slowdown is approaching.
How has the Pound performed against the Dollar recently?
Financial markets endured a rather turbulent April. The culprit of all these uncertainties originated from Trump’s so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs‘.
Far higher in rates and much wider in scope than anticipated, within days, investors panicked and fled risk assets when the tariff bombshell landed. US Treasuries, in contrast to its previous assumed role, were no safe haven in the ensuing market maelstrom. Investors fear a surge in inflationary pressure as tariff-led price increases take effect.
US Dollars, in the face of these swirling uncertainties, collapsed in value.
Against Pound Sterling, the recent turbulence has lifted GBPUSD more than expected. The rate initially rallied in favour of USD (due to its historical safe haven status), but it weakened sharply throughout the month. The driver of this trend was dollar weakness and growing expected economic weakness. A recession in the US this year is now a high-probability event. What a turn of fortune since the election in November!
Chartwise, GBPUSD is bumping against the former peak near 1.350 (see below).
Will this resistance fail? Hard to say now. The current White House has a habit of rocking markets with new announcements. But having paused the higher tariff rates for 90 days, shell-shocked investors are preparing to take on more risk. A retracement from this ceiling is possible to the near-term support at 1.300-1.310.
Is it a good time to buy US Dollars with pounds?
Given that Sterling has strengthened sharply the Dollar, should we sell GBP to buy USD?
At 1.335-1.340, the rate is near its highest level for the past four years. Therefore, buying some USDs now could be good move.
Of course, you may argue that further USD weakness is probable given the ongoing trend. I’d certainly not countering this view. However bear in mind that the FX market is in a flux; prices may easily retrace first before moving higher.
A rate above 1.320 is a good rate to buy USDs for the summer.
Will the pound get stronger against the USD in the second half of 2025?
Tariffs are sucking the wind out of the US economy. And according to the legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, it is unfortunately now “too late” to unwind these policies. ‘Changes,’ he warned ‘are coming.’
In the opportune article posted on LinkedIn this week (29 Apr), the economics guru points out this – often overlooked – point (emphasis his):
Though not yet fully realized, it is also increasingly being realized that the United States’ role as the world’s biggest consumer of manufactured goods and greatest producer of debt assets to finance its over-consumption is unsustainable, so assuming that one can sell and lend to the U.S. and get paid back with hard (i.e. not devalued) dollars on their U.S. debt holdings is naive thinking, so other plans have to be made.
In other words, the US under President Trump is trying to tackle the nation’s debt morass by devaluing its currency. Did you know: In 2024, US debt interest alone totalled $880 billion? This year, interest payments are set to rise above $1 trillion.
Tariffs is part of the “plan” to cut the debt. Even the decision to hit markets, if we believe Secretary Bessent’s words’, is a ‘strategic uncertainty’ to negotiate trade deals.
So unlike previous market crises where the USD gained in value, this time, it falls. You can see this impact most glaringly against the hard currency Swiss Franc. Prices slumped to 14-year low in April. At this rate of decline, new all-time lows below the 2011 nadir are a distinct possibility (see below).
As US dollar dives, gold surged. For the past eight weeks, the yellow metal has set one new record high after another. Even Bitcoin rallied back above $95,000. Hard assets are what investors are going after these days.
Unfortunately, Pound Sterling is not one of these desirable hard assets. Yes GBPUSD rallied sharply since the start of the year. But at 1.335 the rate is in fact no higher than it was back in 2016. Post-Brexit Britain is mired in problems of its own. Growth is patchy; productivity poor. Compounding to the problem are Trump’s tariffs.
Therefore, while GBPUSD has modest medium-term upside, this rally is mostly driven by USD. Oversold, the USD may rebound from time to time. The Dollar giveth, the Dollar taketh.
What is the GBPUSD forecast in weeks, months, and years?
While the rally in GBPUSD has been strong, the market consensus does not appear to support this buoyant pricing.
Over the next 2-3 weeks, prices are expected to drop back into the 1.300. Some brokers even pencilled in a move below 1.300 (see below). This is logical given that UK economic performance is not outstanding either. The sweeping US tariffs poses huge dangers for the UK economy too.
Seeing further ahead, the dispersion of forecast view widens, from 1.340 to 1.280. Currently, the USD is oversold and may rebound in the weeks if the White House manages to clinch some favourable trade deals.
Source: fxstreet.com (April 2025)
Where is the best place for buying large amounts of US Dollars from Pounds
There are two different ways people buy US Dollars from Pounds
- Through a currency broker – when transferring money abroad
- Through a forex broker – when speculating on the price of currency
You can use this comparison table of currency brokers to see how many currencies they offer, what the minimum USD transfer is and if they offer forwards and currency options as well as when they were established. You can either visit each currency broker individually or use our currency quote comparison tool to request multiple exchange rates.
Or, if you are more interested in trading GBPUSD you can compare forex brokers here.
What is the live GBPUSD exchange rate?
The current GBPUSD exchange rate is $0.751554779 which is a change of -0.32% from the previous day’s closing price. Over a week GBPUSD is -0.32%, compared to its change over a month of -0.57% and one year of -4.63%.
GBPUSD exchange rate data is updated every 15 minutes.
Other Forecasts:
Jackson is a core part of the editorial team at GoodMoneyGuide.com.
With over 15 years industry experience as a financial analyst, he brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to our content and readers.
Previously Jackson was the director of Stockcube Research as Head of Investors Intelligence. This pivotal role involved providing market timing advice and research to some of the world’s largest institutions and hedge funds.
Jackson brings a huge amount of expertise in areas as diverse as global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University and has authored nearly 200 articles for GoodMoneyGuide.com.
You can contact Jackson at jackson@goodmoneyguide.com
