fbpx

Pros and cons of short selling

How to Go Short: Using spread betting & CFDs to bet on the market going down

We covered short spread bet trading in our how spread betting works guide and all spread betting brokers offer the facility to bet on markets and stocks going down.

This is one of the main benefits and being able to bet on markets going down is a useful tool in post speculation and hedging with spread betting.

The principle of shorting stocks is not new, professional traders and hedge funds have been doing it for years.  It works like this:

  1. Fund A thinks the price of Vodafone will go down and they want to bet on a drop in the short term (a few months).
  2. Fund A knows that Fund B has a long term (a few years) position in Vodafone shares.
  3. Fund A asks to borrow Fund B’s Vodafone shares so they can sell them to someone else.
  4. Fund B lends Fund A the Vodafone shares and charges 5% of the value as a fee.
  5. Funds A sells the Vodafone shares on the London Stock Exchange
  6. A month later Vodafone shares have dropped in price and Fund A buys them back.
  7. Fund A then gives the shares back to Fund B.

For the private spread betting investor, it is much simpler.  They just bet a certain amount per point that the shares will go down. There is no need to worry about borrowing stock from anyone.

The spread betting broker will either net the position off against one of their clients that is long, or will borrow the stock just like Fund A did in the example above.  Then give it back when the client closes their position.

Obviously, this example is based on a single trade and the intricacies of a brokers stock lending and borrowing team are much more complex than this.

CFD & Spread Betting Brokers For Going Short

Featured Broker: CMC Markets

✔ Trade as spread bet or CFD
✔ Over 300 currency pairs to trade
✔ Over 9,500 instruments to trade
✔ Forex spreads from just 0.7 pips
✔ UK stock trading from 0.1%
✔ US stock trading from 2 cents per share
✔ FCA regulated, listed on the LSE
✔ Listed on the London Stock Exchange
✔ Established in 1989


Find Out More

How to find out what hedge funds are shorting and whether or not you should follow them

We've covered how to short major stocks like Facebook, Deutsche Bank and even Cryptos like Bitcoin when they were booming. But, how do you find good shorting opportunities in the stock markets?

But if you want to see what other traders are doing, one option is to copy other experienced traders and sell short when they do. You can, of course, do this through the new breed of social trading brokers like eToro or Pelican.

Or, instead of following complete amateur investors you could keep an eye on what the hedge funds are shorting and copy them instead.

Where to find out what hedge funds are shorting

It's actually pretty easy. As with having to notify the exchange when you own more than a certain amount of a listed company. Firms have to disclose when their short positions exceed o.5% of a company.

You can find this information reported in the financial press, but also here:

Which brokers can you short stocks through?

If you want to short stocks you can use a CFD broker or spread betting brokers. Use our trading account comparison tables to see which suits your trading style best. Or read our reviews on any of the below that offer equity stock shorting.

Featured Broker: CMC Markets

✔ Trade as spread bet or CFD
✔ Over 300 currency pairs to trade
✔ Over 9,500 instruments to trade
✔ Forex spreads from just 0.7 pips
✔ UK stock trading from 0.1%
✔ US stock trading from 2 cents per share
✔ FCA regulated, listed on the LSE
✔ Listed on the London Stock Exchange
✔ Established in 1989


Find Out More

Should you copy what hedge funds are shorting?

Now you know how to find out what hedge funds are shorting. But. Before you start playing amateur sleuth and screeching "core blimey, there's more shorts than a Wham concert in this stock" it's important to cover the risks of following hedge fund's short positions...

Hedge funds don't get it right all the time

There was a great article in the FT years ago about how hedge fund managers at GLG (one of the biggest UK hedgies and owed by Man where I used to work) about how they only get stock picking right about half the time. And that that, was in fact, ok.

The reason being of course that (as you should know by now) it's not what you buy or sell. Trading, is really about how you manage risk and your positions after a trade has been put on.

GLG's approach is as basic as buy low, sell high in that they run profits and cut losses. So, if they only pick winning trades half the time, they still make money by making having a greater win:loss ratio on the positions.

If you want to know more about win-loss ratios read The Art of Execution by Lee Freeman-Shor. It's one of the best books on post-execution trade strategy.

Hedge funds operate on a long/short basis

Most alternative asset managers, aka hedge funds, will have two funds. One will generally be a long-term income or growth fund that invests in assets they believe will outperform the market or are income generating through high dividends or bond yields.

Hedgies may also have a long/short portfolio which consists of stocks or assets that are market neutral. The idea here is that it doesn't matter if the overall market goes up or down as the fund will have an equal amount of long and short positions (albeit with a slight weighting if they have an overall market bias).

Which means that if a hedge fund has a large disclosed short positions they may not actually think the stock is going to go down. It may be part of a sector or pairs trade. For example, if a hedgie doesn't know (or care) whether the banking sector in the UK will go up or down. But does think that Barclays will under-perform Lloyds, they will sell Barclays and buy Lloyds.  In this case, they have limited their exposure to large moves in either the underlying index or the banking sector.

Hedge funds are generally always invested

When an investor gives a hedge fund their money they are doing so for the fund manager to have it actively traded in the market.  Even though hedge funds tend to be higher risk than other types of fund they still have to have some sort or risk controls and portfolio exposure caps.

They do not (or should not) have the money sat around in cash then put all their eggs in one basket and Rio trade on a whim.

So when hedge funds disclose a large short position it will probably be part of an overall portfolio of positions hedged with options, index futures or some other OTC product you've never heard of and wouldn't be able to trade even if you wanted to.

What are the risks of shorting stocks

Well as with all derivatives trading you can lose a massive amount of money very quickly. Here are the risks you have to consider:

  • In theory, a stock can go up forever so your potential loss is unlimited
  • You'll pay financing charges on the position
  • You may be forced to buy back your position
  • A company may be suspended and your margin will go to 100%
  • The stock could become very volatile and you broker may ask for over 100% margin (as with crypto trading)

So why bother looking at what the hedge funds are shorting?

Well, what makes a market is opinions. You can either jump on the bandwagon and follow them or wait patiently for the bear squees when they buy their large position back.

What the major players are buying or selling, as with technical analysis, economic indicators, news flow, fundamental research all provide stimulus for trading.

If you want to see what's going down flick through the charts on Investors Intelligence. You can rank stocks by Stockcube's propriety trend score as well as P&F breakout signals. Or of course you can look at the trading signals section to see what stocks are potentially worth looking to short.

What are the Pros & Cons of Short Selling

Advatages of going short

Disadvatnages of going short

👍Make money when the market goes down👎Unlimited losses if the market rises
👍Can be used to hedge long term investments👎Can be hard to borrow stocks
👍Simpler aternatieve to trading options👎Short positions can be called in and automatically closed

Bull and bear markets are the yin and yang of financial cycles. Learning to short sell may prove to be lucrative.

When people think of short selling, they associate it with financial vultures, unscrupulous hedge funds, and doom merchants. Even regulators are not too kind towards this activity. Banning short-selling activities is the first thing they do during market panics. But is short selling really that negative?

In a modern, sophisticated and complex financial market, short selling is an invaluable activity. It helps to burst unfounded optimism of a sector, prevent irrational buying of assets, and uncover frauds plus other financial shenanigans. It is a vital part of an efficient market and price discovery.

If you want to short the market you can compare brokers for going short here.

What are the risks?

Short selling is taking a punt on the downside of a stock. To short sell a stock, you borrow shares from someone who already owned them, and sell these shares on the market hoping to back them back cheaper in the future. For example, you borrow XYZ plc shares and sell them at 120p now. If prices go down to 100p next week, you make a 20p gain.

After you buy back the stock, you return these shares back to the original owners.

Unlike buying shares, short selling is not cheap. On top of the usual CFD or spread betting brokerage fees, short sellers may have to pay a fee to the owners of the shares and whatever dividends accrued to them during the period shares out on loan.

Moreover, short selling is fairly high risk. This is because a stock's upside is limitless. The most XYZ plc can only go down is 100% (bankrupt). But it can double or triple over a short period of time. Thus brokers who arranged the shares often require counterparts to post large collateral to guard against this risk.

But this is not the most crucial factor. The most dangerous risk for CFD traders short selling is a short squeeze. This describe a manic scramble to buy back shares previous shorted. The catalyst could be better-than-expected results, a takeover approach, or a new product discovery. Suddenly, every short seller rush to cover their short positions by buying back the shares they previously shorted. When everyone buys a stock, it creates an immense upward pressure on prices which hurt short sellers even more.

One recent example is Tesla (TSLA), which was heavily shorted in 2018-'19. But when its financial position was not as dire as predicted, Tesla began to surge - and prompted a massive wave of short covering. The spike to near $1,000 indicates this panic buying. Once this wave passes, prices collapsed back to $400. That's why naked short selling is often limited to experienced and sophisticated investors with deep pockets.

Why you should consider short selling

  1. Short selling could be suitable for some astute investors who enjoy going against the grain. It is a lucrative activity for successful investigative traders who know that they are doing. There are professional funds that are dedicated to this activity alone.
  2. Short selling pays off just when you need it. For example, your short selling activities may net you a fortune during a severe bear markets. This gives you a layer of protective blanket on your long-only portfolios.
  3. Short selling allows you take more aggressive long activities because you have some downside hedge.
  4. There are plenty of opportunities for short sellers in the UK. During a relatively steady year (2019), there are many blue-chip FTSE stocks that plummeted in value.  For example, Centrica (CNA), Fresnillo (FRES), Glencore (GLEN) all drop by double digits (see below). This create opportunities for short sellers.

Three scenarios when you should consider short selling

Broadly speaking, there are three scenarios where short selling can be considered.

Speculative Mania. When stock markets have been rising to stratospheric levels and  incredibly expensive valuation, it is ripe for short selling. One instance that comes to mind is the dot-com boom. Many stocks slumped by 99% in the crash that followed. Not to forget is that during the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 many short sellers made a fortune because they bet against the credit bubble. One key thing to bear in mind is that selling a mania requires a near-perfect timing. An expensive stock can become even more expensive before prices turn down.

Undiscovered Fraud. This means that investors are generally unaware of the underlying ill financial health of a company. One recent example in the UK is NMC Health (NMC), a former darling of the stock market. In December of 2019, the company was accused by Muddy Waters - a specialised research outfit that targets financial frauds - for concealing its true debt levels. Initially, the firm rejected these accusations. Then the true picture emerged weeks later and NMC was suspended, but not before its share prices collapsed by 75% from its peak (see below). If you smell something fishy about a stock, stay away. Better still, short sell it.

Bear Markets. During a bear market, most stocks will depreciate. Prices decline as profit outlook turn negative. Valuation of a stock shrinks. This means that the path of least resistance is to the downside, create trends that are favourable to short sellers.

Stacking the odds on short selling

Given that short selling is risky, you should gather as much favourable conditions as possible before embarking selling a stock. Below are a few factors that may increase your success

  1. Know the company inside out, especially if you are short selling individual stocks. You need to be able to ascertain a company's true financial picture better than the market. Not easy to do, given markets are relatively efficient. Seek discrepancies in the firm's debt, cash flow, product sales, etc - and compare it with its peers. Does it make sense? Is high valuation a reason to short sell it?
  2. Look for triggers. Shorting a stock on its way up is highly dangerous because you may not have the financial power to sustain margin calls. Better to wait until prices peak and start to come down. During the dot-com, one trigger to short a stock was the expiration of lock-up periods. When these lock-up expired, management, early investors, and founders all dump their stock holdings to turn their paper wealth into cash. This created massive downward pressure on prices.
  3. Start small. Only add when prices are starting to move favourably in your direction. Stoplosses are essential.
  4. Analyse short activities. Find out what other funds are shorting - because this may create herding behaviour (see below).

Where can you find short selling activities in the UK?

Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has this highly useful website that detailed short positions on stocks. The data is in an excel format.

For example, recently Premier  Oil (PMO) is the most highly shorted stock - unsurprisingly due to its vulnerable share price. Others like Easyject (EZJ) is also heavily shorted because of the collapse in air travel.

Shorting Stocks Example: How to short and bet on Deutsche Bank shares going down….

It's not very pleasant I know, but it's the markets. When a company is in trouble the vultures begin to circle.

I don't mean vultures, I mean hedgers, risk protectors, opportunists, trend hunters or just plain old traders.

Before I get into this I am not suggesting Deutsche Bank's share price is a one-way bet down. I'm just highlighting ways to short the stock and bet on it going down if DB continues to underperform.

But first here are three major risks of shorting Deutsche Bank stock.

First, if you are short your max profit is if the share price goes to zero. Your max loss is in theory unlimited. So if for example the company is bid for, then you can expect a significant rise in price and resulting loss.

Secondly, you can be forced to close your position off by your broker and the exchange.  If your broker has borrowed stock from someone else to hedge your short position they can be forced to give it back. So, if your broker is not prepared to have your short position unhedged they will close off it whether you like it or not. And even worse, this can be done at any price that is fillable.  Which is a nightmare if a stock is illiquid.

And thirdly, if the stock is suspended, which can happen when companies hit hard times - you could be asked to cough up 100% margin with no idea where the stock will come back to the market.

This isn't an exhaustive list of the risks in shorting Deutsche Bank stock, so make sure you do your homework first.

But if you do want to bet on Deutsche Bank stock going all the way down to China Town, here are three ways to do it with some pros and cons.

Short Deutsche Bank stock on a spread bet

With a spread betting broker profits are tax-free as you bet a certain amount per point a share price moves. So for example, if you bet £10 a point (cent) that Deutsche Bank stock moves then you could potentially make £7,720 if it goes to zero. You'd have to cough up about £1,500 in initial margin and make sure you have enough money on your account for daily P&L margin.

Even though Deutsche Bank trade in Euros you can have a GBP position.

  • Pro - tax-free profits
  • Con - unlimited potential losses

You can compare spread betting brokers here

Sell Deutsche Bank stock as a CFD

Basically the same as a spread bet but instead of betting a £ per point you buy and sell a share equivalent as a CFD instead of owning the shares. Be mindful that your P&L will be in Euros though.

  • Pro - trade on leverage with margin
  • Con - trading on margin can significantly increase your losses and wipe out your entire account quickly

You can compare CFD brokers here

Buy a Deutsche Bank put option

Buying a put option will give you the right to sell a certain amount of stock in Deutsche Bank at set price.

So taking an example from the below options chain on Deutsche Bank shares. If you buy some 7.6 January 2019 put options you will have the right to sell your Deutsche Bank at 7.6 even if the price is trading on the market at 6.  Of course, you don't have to wait till the option expires, you can sell your option position.  If the price has moved lower the intrinsic value of the option will have increased from 0.41. However, the closer the option gets to expiry the lower the time value will get.

You can read more about calculating the time value of an option here.

The risk with options is that you lose the premium that you paid and the option expires out of the money worthless.

  • Pro - limited risk
  • Con - can expire worthless

You can compare options brokers here

Please note that whilst writing this article I have decided to buy a couple of hundred quids worth of put options. I went for a slightly longer expiry and bought the June19 7.6 puts. I cannot stress more strongly that this is not a recommendation to trade. I am a hopeless trader. But today feels like a gambling day.  Maybe because I'm off to the races later with Spreadex at Sandown.

Position ticket below for your amusement...

Think a company is going bust? Here’s three ways to short a stock ( we'll use Facebook as an example plus highlight the risks involved).

Facebook has recently had it's hand slapped, for being naughty and as history has a habit of repeating itself (cough cough myspace, friends reunited) here are a few ways to take a short position on Facebook's share price going down.

If you think that Facebook's share price is going down then you can put on short position to profit from a falling market. Here's a quick guide to shorting Facebook stock, the risks, the potential rewards, they types of trading and the brokers that offer Facebook shorting.

What are the risks of shorting Facebook?

  1. Unlimited potential losses: The main risk is that share prices can go up indefinitely, but only down to 0. So in theory, if you are shorting Facebook stock you potential losses are infinite. Also, if the company is bid for or a takeover rumour emerges the share price will surge.
  2. Over leverage: Shorting shares is generally done on margin. Using leverage to trade means that you get exposure to more stock than funds on account. So for example, if the margin rate for Facebook is 10% you can short $10,000 worth of stock with only $1,000 on account. If the stock drops 50% you make $5k, but if it rallies, just 10% you've lost all your money.
  3. Currency Risk: Facebook is an American stock so there is a currency exposure. If the GBPUSD rate changes significantly, this can wipe out all your profits. You can avoid this through by trading a GBP position in a USD stock with a spread betting or CFD broker.

Potential rewards of shorting Facebook

  1. You can profit when the stock goes down. Shorting stocks, is not a new principle for UK investors. Spread betting and CFD trading have been around for years. Spread betting and CFD traders have been speculating on currencies, indices and stocks going up and down for decades. Shorting is of course an excellent tool for protecting long term investments against short term downtrends. But also provides a trade for short term speculation. It is risky though, so always make sure you understand the risks involved.
  2. Receiving income from overnight financing. When you trade on leverage there is an overnight financing charge for long positions. Most accounts are set to charge 2.5% over/under 1 month LIBOR (or thereabouts). What this means is that if you are long, you have to pay 2.5% plus the 1 month LIBOR rate to hold the position. But, if you are short you should receive the interest. In practice though (at the moment) interest rates are so low the short credit ends up negative so you check with your broker if you actually pay interest on short positions.

Different ways to short Facebook stock.

  • Spread betting - take a $ per cent bet on the stock. Spread betting is one of the most popular ways for private investors to short US stocks. Commissions are worked into the spread, so you just see one price. Profits are also tax free.
  • CFDs - are a contract for difference between the opening and closing prices of a trade. Spread betting tax benefits are unique to the UK so Europeans trade CFDs instead. CFDs are also useful for larger more tax efficient traders who want DMA (Direct Market Access) to get better pricing.
  • Options - this gives you the right to sell a certain amount of stock at a certain level in the future. You don't have to which is why it's called an option. If you think a share price is going down, you would buy a "put" which gives you the right to sell stock at a certain price. The price of a put will increase the further down the stock goes, allowing you to sell the put at a higher price and therefore making a profit on the options.

 

Featured Broker: CMC Markets

✔ Trade as spread bet or CFD
✔ Over 300 currency pairs to trade
✔ Over 9,500 instruments to trade
✔ Forex spreads from just 0.7 pips
✔ UK stock trading from 0.1%
✔ US stock trading from 2 cents per share
✔ FCA regulated, listed on the LSE
✔ Listed on the London Stock Exchange
✔ Established in 1989


Find Out More
What's in this guide to going short? hide

About The Authors