Five Market Trends to Watch Until 2026

Every now and then, investors need to step back and assess the ‘big picture’. That is, to think about what message is market emitting. This means taking stock of prices across assets and sectors, and analyse their long-term trends. This exercise also helps to keep our feet ‘on the ground’ so to speak.

After going through numerous charts, here are some of the investment trends worth noting:

Market Trend 1: Gold in uncharted territory

One of the hottest trends these days is gold (ETF ticker: GLD).

The big catalyst for the uptrend renewal here is due to the ongoing threat to Fed’s independence. Should President Trump get his way, the central bank of America will probably turn more dovish than expected. As such, investors are hedging this view with persistent buying of the precious metal.

Of course, momentum traders are too jumping in due to favour price trends. Gold at new highs usually means one thing: every single long position is sitting in profit. When this happens, few are inclined to sell. The supply-demand imbalance is therefore prolonged.

Big long-term trends often hit big targets. Gold’s key technical milestone here is obvious: $4,000. This is followed by another at $5,000.

Is it too late to chase the rally higher? In some ways, the answer is yes, since prices have gained so much this year already. But when an asset is buoyed by secular macro/political trends, the rally tend to last longer than expected. A long position is still warranted, but perhaps with a more appropriate position size to account for the lateness of the trade.

Related assets/trades:

• Silver (ETF ticker: SLV) – which is sustaining the breakout above $40. As this level converts into support, another leg up from here into $45 is on the table.
• Precious Metal Miners (ETF ticker: GDX and GDXJ) – are rallying hard due to the increase in precious metal prices. If you know any individual gold/silver stock very well, then your knowledge dictates that you buy and hold those miners with a larger weighting. Otherwise, holding a portfolio like GDX/GDXJ may be a better choice. In the UK, the largest silver miner is Fresnillo (FRES).
• Platinum (ETF ticker: PPLT) – is playing catching up with gold and silver. Prices are currently consolidating its advance. LSE-listed Valterra (LSE:VALT) is trading near its post-IPO highs.

Market Trend 2: Long-maturity US Bonds to rebound?

One of the monetary goals of the White House is to lower the interest rates.

They may have just found the perfect excuse: US job creation is slowing to a crawl. Deteriorating economic trends will exert increased pressure on the FOMC to drop interest rates.  Hence, the sharp rebound in long-maturity US government bonds last week (ETF ticker: TLT).

Prices have surged to the top of the multi-week trading range. A further rally here may lead to a base breakout, and a potential medium-term uptrend.

Prospect of lower interest rates is already boosting investor sentiment. Unsurprisingly many stocks jumped last Friday. Bad news, it seems, is still a good thing.

Related assets/trades

• Total Bond ETF (ticker: BND)
• Mortgage/Junk Bond – investment-grade mortgages may benefit from lower interests rates (ticker: MBB, factsheet). Even companies with junk ratings may find it easier to sell debt on a more accommodative monetary landscape (ticker: JNK). Both ETFs are nearing an upside breakout.

Market Trend 3: Ex-US Equities to outperform?

One of the beneficiaries of a dovish US monetary policy could be ex-US equities. The reason is because global capital liquidity increases due to a lower US debt cost.

One market observation that stood out this summer was this: Many non-US stock markets surged to new all-time (or long-term) highs. Markets such as Japan (TOPIX), UK (FTSE 100) and Germany (DAX). These aren’t exactly small economies, but top ten developed markets. A stronger-than-expected market current is underway.

These rallies outside US is reflected those ex-US indices (eg, ETF ticker: VEU). The trend of VEU is unmistakably bullish, as the ETF just cracked a long-term breakout this year. Prices overcame a resistance level dating back to 2007, nearly two decades ago! A cyclical opportunity to profit from non-US stocks could be in the making.

Of course, if you know some individual markets better, a larger portfolio weight is warranted. Otherwise, holding a diversified portfolio like VEU (with 3819 securities) or VXUS (8615 securities) may be a better choice.

Related assets:

• Individual country ETFs – eg Japan (EWJ), Germany (EWG), Singapore (EWS), UK (EWU; alternatively, FTSE 100 – ISF:UK).
• Regional ETFs – like Emerging Market (EEM, IEMG, VWO), MSCI Europe (IEUR)
• Ex-US Stock ETFs – eg Vanguard FTSE All-World (VEU), Vanguard International (VXUS)

 

Market Trend 4: Commodity upcycle switches into critical minerals

One way China retaliated against Trump’s tariffs is through rare earth metals. Simply, China, being the largest producer and refiner of these critical minerals, has drastically reduced the export of the commodities.

As a result, many RE prices have soared. A political scramble to tackle this serious problem is taking form, from investing in rare earth projects outside China to reduce potential RE elements in key products. American is taking the lead in investing in these projects.

MP Materials (ticker: MP), for example, is counting US government as one of its largest shareholders. The Trump government wants to unshackle its RE dependence from China.

However, these projects – especially the refining part – take time. A lot of things can go wrong, from storing those toxic refining wastes to long-term sustainability of the project. Still, the trend right now is pointing towards a strong revival of this part of the commodity space. The cyclical expansion should last a little longer as western governments grapple with China’s export ban.

Note, however, the price volatility of these miners. They can rally hundreds of percent over a short time; and they also plunge steeply. 30-60 percent corrections are not out of the norm. Do keep this in mind when planning trades around these miners.

When big miners start to move north, it usually drags the smaller, riskier miners up later.

Related assets/trades:

• Rare earth miners – Lynas (ASX:LYC),  Energy Fuels (EFR), Pensana (UK: PRE), Aclara (TSX: ARA, just received $5 million funding from US govt)
• Antimony – a mineral that is also banned by China. US Antimony Corporation (ticker: UAMY)
• Rare earth ETF – VanEck Rare Earth ETF (ticker: REMX)

Market Trend 5: Bitcoin consolidates: Time to buy?

Earlier this year, crypto was the one topic many were interested in. Now, enthusiasm is slowing waning. This is understandable. Nothing lasts forever in financial markets. Uptrends are usually followed by slow consolidation.

Bitcoin is digesting the strong uptrend from $76K. More importantly, prices are bouncing off the psychologically important $100k support. As the real gold moves relentlessly north, will the ‘digital gold’ follow? As prices stay above $100k, chances of another spurt is not to be discounted.

The second point is that non-BTC cryptos are still bullish. For example, Solana (SOLUSD, $118 billion market cap) is about to take off after finding firm buying interest at $200. No resistance until $280-300.

Another thing to note is that after Bitcoin’s ETF approval, many other coins are looking to list in the US market too. Solana, Cardano, XRP, Dogecoin are some of the digital assets waiting in the pipeline to channel into the ETF boom.

Lastly, many Bitcoin holders are still buying. Strategy (MSTR) just dipped into the Bitcoin market with another 1,955 BTC purchase this week.

And who can forget that Eightco (OCTO), as Nasdaq-listed paper packing company, surged 3,000 percent this week when it announced a multi-million placement to buy Worldcoin as its primary treasury asset?

Therefore, more likely than not the cyclical crypto bull market is still in motion, just that it is taking a temporary rest from the over-hectic pace earlier this year.

Related Assets:

• Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs – eg, Bitcoin ETF (ticker: IBIT), Ethereum (ETHA)
• Bitcoin Treasury Companies – Strategy (MSTR). See the full list in bitcointreasuries.net/
• Alt-Coins: Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP)