The pound-to-Swiss Franc forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPCHF price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy the Swiss Franc, or if you should wait until the price improves.
GBPCHF Forecast Highlights
- GBPCHF rallied to multi-quarter high (1.16) in June
- Recent macro-political improvements boosting GBP
- GBPCHF to march higher; medium-term target at 1.200
How has the Pound performed against the Swiss Franc recently?
The Swiss Franc is a well-known ‘safe haven’ currency. Whenever there is a whiff of financial troubles in the global market, investors seek safety in the Swiss Franc.
If we analyse the long-term chart of the Swiss Franc against Sterling since 2009, the directional trend is broadly down, in favour of the Franc. Who can blame investor for selling the Pound Sterling? The productivity of Britain is relatively poor; a multi-year drama about Brexit sucked up all political bandwidth. And the disastrous Truss administration which caused a meltdown in the gilt and Sterling prices. Each episode saw GBPCHF spike down, eg, in 2016 and 2022. At its lowest, the rate plunged to near parity (see below).
But after a 15-year downtrend, has GBPCHF finally bottomed out? The sharp recovery in late 2022 and the gentle sideways drifting probably suggest that the cyclical bear phase is over. And after crossing north of 1.100 this year, the rate is firmly holding above this support level. The recent correction to 1.120 in June was swiftly reversed. All these suggest that the macro factors appear to favour the Pound.
Technically the secular bearish pattern is not yet broken. But there are hopes that Sterling is at a turning point. The newly-elected UK administration has space to boost the country’s finances and economic fortunes. Even though Sterling just recovered its ground lost in 2022, a further rally to 1.200 is not to be ruled out.
Is it a good time to buy Swiss Francs with Pounds?
Based on the above analyses, it is a good time to buy Swiss Francs now?
The answer is yes if you need some CHFs for the summer. The rate is near its highest level in a year. You can to secure these Francs with a currency forward.
Of course, you may wish to wait further to bet on further GBP strength. The next upside target is at 1.200. The risk is that Sterling may be trading sideways with modest downward drift. Buying on the spot when you need the Franc always carries some risks.
Will the pound get stronger against the Swiss Francs in 2024?
Apart from its strength the Swiss Franc is famous for its unpredictability (which often stems from its strength).
The most example occurred in January 2015. A few brokers were hammered when the Swiss National Bank abruptly removed the CHF-EUR peg. While there is no value control on the CHF right now, the Swiss National Bank is always watching the currency like a hawk in case it shoots up. In all policy documents, one of the first warnings is: “The SNB is also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.”
Most recently, the Swiss National Bank is leading the case for rate cuts. Twice this summer already, the central bank has lowered the policy rate, each time by 25 bps. The rate now stands at 1.25 percent (see below). According to its latest policy statement in June, the SNB anticipates that “over the entire forecast horizon, the conditional inflation forecast is within the range of price stability . The forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026.” Moreover, “inflationary pressure abroad is likely to continue to ease gradually over the next quarters.”
In other words, inflation is about to become yesterday’s battle. A less restrictive monetary stance is appropriate for now. The ECB has also lowered its policy rate in June.
But that’s not the case in the UK. Even a rate cut in August is not unanimously agreed upon. Lower interest rates tend to depreciate the local currency. Thus once the political instability premium is removed GBP stands to gain from this interest rate differential between GBP and CHF.
How far will this situation last? The BoE is not in a hurry to reduce rates. Perhaps the governor is watching what the Fed does first. As such, the GBP is on stronger ground (for now). A break below 1.12 is required to signal the end of the multi-month bull run.
Source: SNB (data)
What is the GBPCHF forecast in weeks, months, years?
The financial community is not anticipating GBP to strengthen significantly against the CHF in the coming weeks.
If we look at the aggregate forecasts of GPBCHF, the generate consensus is that the rates will trend lower over the course of the next few months. The projection chart below is taken from Exchangerateforecast.org.uk. Only the most optimistic rate prediction reaches 1.200 (see below).
But these exchange rate predictions are not set in stone. The market is very dynamical at the moment and the rate may move quickly, up or down. Right now, the rate is rallying into the June peak at 1.165, testing that pivot high as resistance.
Source: Exchangerates.org.uk (July 2024)
Where is the best place for buying large amounts of Swiss Francs from Pounds
There are two different ways people buy Swiss Francs from Pounds
- Through a currency broker like Currencies Direct, OFX or Corpay– when transferring money abroad
- Through a forex broker like CMC Markets, City Index or IG – when speculating on the price of currency
You can use our comparison table of currency brokers to see how many currencies they offer, what the minimum CHF transfer is and if they offer forwards and currency options as well as when they were established. You can either visit each currency broker individually or use our currency quote comparison tool to request multiple exchange rates.
Or, if you are more interested in trading GBPCHF, you can compare forex brokers here.
What is the live GBPCHF exchange rate?
The current GBPCHF exchange rate is 1.1069 which is a change of -0.45% from the previous days closing price. Over a week GBPCHF is -0.45%, compared to it’s change over a month of 2.36% and one year of -0.63%.
GBPCHF exchange rate data is updated every 15 minutes.
Jackson is a core part of the editorial team at GoodMoneyGuide.com.
With over 15 years industry experience as a financial analyst, he brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to our content and readers.
Previously Jackson was the director of Stockcube Research as Head of Investors Intelligence. This pivotal role involved providing market timing advice and research to some of the world’s largest institutions and hedge funds.
Jackson brings a huge amount of expertise in areas as diverse as global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University and has authored nearly 200 articles for GoodMoneyGuide.com.
