Pound To Swedish Krona Forecast – Is Now The Best Time To Buy SEK From GBP?

GBPSEK Forecast Highlights

• GBPSEK falters at 14.0 to trade at multi-week lows
• Long-term uptrend here under threat if prices slide further
• SEK is quietly building support across major currencies (USDSEK, EURSEK)

How has the Pound performed against the Swedish Krone recently?

The Swedish Krona is on a more positive trajectory against the GBP these days. Has the tide finally turned?

Looking at GBPSEK’s chart below, it appears 14.00 has been reaffirmed as ceiling once more. The rate has been hitting against this staunchly-defended resistance for 18 months, but without much success. As soon as GBP wobbles, prices retreat back into the former range.

The interesting question, though, is whether the long-term uptrend (with SEK being the weaker counterpart) is coming to an end. Currencies trend, and this one has trended beautifully over the past few years. Prices rose from 11.00 all the way to 14.00.

However the upward-sloping trendline, which joined each major reaction lows, is only 0.3 away from current prices. With SEK buyers appear at 14.00 this trend is now under threat. Favourable macro tailwinds may further aid this turnaround.

In sum I anticipate a test of this long-term uptrend in the next few months.

Is it a good time to buy the Swedish Krona with pounds?

Pound Sterling has been running positively against the Swedish Krona for the past few years. This was an amazing run.

But with resistance appearing at 14.00 you may wish to start change GBP for SEK.  Watch for a rebound (into 13.70-13.75) to change rates. Of course, you can wait for a rebound in GBP. Even then, a return to 14.00 may or may not happen. In financial markets, anything can happen.

Use strength here to offload more GBP for SEKs.

Will the pound get stronger against the SEK in the 2025?

The Swedish economy is expected to grow in the coming quarters. This may help to underpin a recovery in the Krona.

According to the European Commission, the economic forecast for Sweden is quite positive. For example, Sweden’s nominal GBP growth this year is anticipated at 1.8 percent – 5-6x higher than 2024. Inflation is, too, set to fall, as is unemployment (see below). These macro tailwinds are slowly causing traders to re-rate the Swedish Krona upwards.

Source: European Commission (Nov 2024)

This positivity is also seen in the Stockholm stock market. Note the long-term price trend of the local benchmark index: the Stockholm 30 Index.  A swift recovery in 2023/24 has set the index up for a potential upside break to new all-time highs (see below). Arguably, a buoyant stock market may not result in a stronger currency. While it is true that the correlation is weak. But a rising equity market tends to attract more foreign interest – which may lend support to the local currency.

In a nutshell, chances of a stronger SEK are higher than before. This firmness is noted across other FX pairs. For instance, USDSEK has yet to break new lows despite the strengthening dollar. EURSEK is also trending lower (stronger SEK). In fact, this rate has not make new lows for two years now.

On a contrarian note, traders may even use SEK weakness to accumulate the currency for a medium-term recovery trade.

What is the GBPSEK forecast in weeks, months, and years?

The market consensus for GBPSEK is positive. Prices are expected to rebound and return to 14.0 soon.

But is the market too bullish on GBP? With macro headwinds blowing on Sterling, it would require significant weakness from SEK for the rate to return to 14.00 – and break it.

For now, I think the rate may just drift sideways below 14.00 (but above 13.40) as the market tries to work out which economy will outperform this year.

Source: poundsterlinglive.com (Jan 2025)