The pound-to-Swedish Krona forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPSEK price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy the Swedish Krona, or if you should wait until the price improves.
GBPSEK Forecast Highlights
- Riksbank cut policy rates in May, to 3.75 percent
- GBPSEK rallies into multi-year high (in favour of GBP)
- The current trend favours a further advance into multi-year resistance at 14.0
How has the Pound performed against the Swedish Krone recently?
The Swedish Krona has been underperforming Sterling for quite some time.
What is causing the SEK to be so undermined? The Swedish economy, whilst weak, is not exactly sinking into the abyss. According to a recent Riksbank (June) report, they noted:
Swedish GDP increased during the first quarter of 2024. Growth was 0.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter. This was stronger than was forecast in March, which is largely due to a temporarily large contribution from inventories. Interest- sensitive parts of the economy, such as household consumption and housing investment, continued to develop weakly. Monthly outcomes for production and consumption, and confidence indicators for households and companies on the whole indicate weak growth during the second quarter.
If the underlying economy is not the problem, what caused the remarkable decline in SEK’s exchange rate against GBP? Mind you, over 2017 to 2024 the UK had to contend with Brexit, five prime ministers, and a pandemic. Even all these UK economical and political drags are insufficient to prevent GBPSEK from rallying into new long-term highs.
The key lies with the Swedish interest rate. Currently at 3.75 percent (June 24), it is worth pointing out that just a few quarters ago, the rate was stuck at the negative territory (see below). It was sub-zero for many years (2015-2019). In the UK, while the Bank of England Base Rate was near zero, it never went negative.
This SZIRP (Sub-Zero Interest Rate Policy) weakened the Swedish dramatically. USD-SEK rose from 6 to 11; EUR-SEK advance from 9.0 to 12.0. The financial impact of this monetary experiment still lingers to this day. Of course, some will say that SEK is broadly ‘undervalued’. There may be a grain of truth in this perception. But the market can not be ‘wrong’ for a whole decade. Macro factors are seemingly continuing to exert downward pressure on the SEK.
Source: CEPR.org
Is it a good time to buy the Swedish Krona with pounds?
The past few weeks saw Sterling strengthen against the Swedish Krona.
If you do need the currency now, as the holiday season is starting soon, you may wish to take advance of GBP’s current strength to buy some Swedish Krona.
I would, however, eye to complete most SEK purchases near 14.0. This area is a major resistance and, at this point, few are expecting the multi-year ceiling to give way. Take advantage of GBP strength to buy more Swedish Krona.
Will the pound get stronger against the SEK in the second half of 2024?
Technically, the rate is on a cyclical upswing (in favour of GBP).
According to the Swedish central bank, however, they are expecting that the Swedish “GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2024. GDP is expected to be unchanged in the second quarter and then rise to around 0.5 per cent in the second half of the year as the Swedish economy begins to recover.“
Accuracy of economic projections aside, whether this optimistic projection will translate into a stronger SEK remains questionable. But one thing is clear though. The Swedish Riksbank anticipates that inflation will continue to weaken in the coming weeks. This will create more room to lower interest rates, as the rate projection of Riksbank below (dotted lines) reveals.
Should the UK persist and hold on to the 5.25 percent rate in the mean time, this may create further headwinds for the SEK.
Therefore, Sterling is expected keep the upward pressure against the Swedish Krona further. GBPSEK’s multi-year trend remains very much intact and unless we see a decisive downside breakout, chances are high that GBPSEK will re-test that major resistance at 14.0, a technical ceiling dating all the way back to 2006.
What is the GBPSEK forecast in weeks, months, and years?
Despite the above-mentioned economic trends, the market consensus is that GBPSEK will not advance too much from here.
In fact, many forecasters are expecting GBP to weaken into the 12-13 band in the next quarter, before falling further in early 2025 (see below).
However, these are just expectations. The pattern of rising lows in GBPSEK since 2021 suggests that major GBP weakness are required to break the uptrend. For now, I would stick with the prevailing market trend.
Source: poundsterlinglive.com (Jul 2024)
Where is the best place for buying large amounts of Swedish Krone from Pounds
There are two different ways people buy SEK from Pounds
- Through a currency broker like Currencies Direct, OFX or Global Reach– when transferring money abroad
- Through a forex broker like CMC Markets, City Index or IG – when speculating on the price of currency
You can use our comparison table of currency brokers to see how many currencies they offer, what the minimum SEK transfer is and if they offer forwards and currency options as well as when they were established. You can either visit each currency broker individually or use our currency quote comparison tool to request multiple exchange rates.
Or, if you are more interested in trading GBPSEK, you can compare forex brokers here.
What is the live GBPSEK exchange rate?
The current GBPSEK exchange rate is 13.5445 which is a change of -0.2% from the previous days closing price. Over a week GBPSEK is -0.2%, compared to it’s change over a month of 1.02% and one year of -2.32%.
GBPSEK exchange rate data is updated every 15 minutes.
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Jackson is a core part of the editorial team at GoodMoneyGuide.com.
With over 15 years industry experience as a financial analyst, he brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to our content and readers.
Previously Jackson was the director of Stockcube Research as Head of Investors Intelligence. This pivotal role involved providing market timing advice and research to some of the world’s largest institutions and hedge funds.
Jackson brings a huge amount of expertise in areas as diverse as global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University and has authored nearly 200 articles for GoodMoneyGuide.com.
