The pound-to-New Zealand Dollar forecast is an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the GBPNZD price may be in the future. You can use these exchange rate forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy the New Zealand Dollars, or if you should wait until the price improves.
GBPNZD Highlights
- GBPNZD recently advanced to test the 2023 highs
- Reserve Bank of NZ to hold a restrictive monetary policy
- Current uptrend favours a further advance into long-term resistance at 2.20
How has the Pound performed against the New Zealand Dollar recently?
A generation ago, a single British Pound could fetch three New Zealand Dollars.
The Global Financial Crisis, however, crashed the Pound; the rate has not revisited that high point since. At its low in 2016, weeks after the Brexit referendum, one Pound could only exchange for 1.62 NZ Dollar. That nadir marked the lowest point of the GBPNZD rate in forty years. Since 2017, the rate has managed to stay north of 1.800, even during the short-lived Truss debacle. With such a firm technical support underneath, it encourages a slow rally above 2.000, a level which eventually turned into support too (see below).
More recently, the rate rebounded sharply following the conclusion of the UK election. At 2.15-2.20, the rate is now probing the massive range resistance that dates all the way back to 2016. Will this ceiling give way? Possibly. But it is worth reminding readers that this GBPNZD rate tends to move in a ‘choppy’ fashion. One step up; a little step back. Look at its weekly chart. The rate spent almost six years meandering sideways like this in between the tight 1.90-2.05 band.
So whilst GBPNZD’s trend is now definitely heading up, I expect will be a lot of countermanding moves over the medium term. In fact, GBP’s rally over the past two weeks is out of sync with its historical pattern. Watch out for a pullback once the buying pressure subsides near the 2023 peak.
Is it a good time to buy the New Zealand Dollar with pounds?
The past few weeks saw Sterling strengthen against the New Zealand Dollar. The rate rose from 2.06 to 2.15 quickly.
If you do need the currency now, as the holiday season is starting soon, you may wish to take advance of GBP’s current strength to buy some NZ Dollars.
Watch to buy most of the currency near 2.15 as there is resistance from here upwards. Although the exchange rate is modestly bullish, over the next few weeks 2.20 is more likely to hold than break. Take advantage of GBP strength to buy more NZ Dollars.
Will the pound get stronger against the NZD in the second half of 2024?
Broadly speaking, the New Zealand Dollar belongs to a small group of ‘commodity currencies’.
This handful of nations are blessed with vast natural minerals and commodities. Unsurprisingly, these countries derive the bulk of their primary export income from the products. New Zealand, in particular, is the world’s largest exporter of diary products and wool. In 2022, the country exported $7.8 billion of milk products alone (see below).
In other words, whenever there is a commodity upswing, New Zealand tends to benefit from the increased trade in the industry. Along with it, more business demand for the NZ dollars. During the 2009-2015 commodity bull market, for example, USDNZD rose from 2.0 (2 NZD for 1 USD) to 1.15. The Kiwi nearly touched parity with the greenback.
However, after the pandemic this correlation loosened somewhat. Even though New Zealand was able to export more commodities ($72 billion in 2022), the NZ Dollar did not rally much.
Source: NZ Trade Department
Perhaps there are a few reasons for this. One is the weakening economic growth in China. The largest economy in Asia is, by far, New Zealand’s biggest export market, totalling nearly a quarter of all NZ’s exports. An economic slowdown in China will hit export expectations. The second factor is the stagnating diary market. Maybe the sector will improve later this year. But there is much uncertainty now. How well the industry will cope in the next year or so is an open question.
Lastly, NZ’s monetary policy remains restrictive. While inflation is hitting 2 percent in the UK, over there inflation is much stickier. Headline CPI remains above 4 percent. Given that “domestically generated price pressures remain strong” the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, in its latest policy report, has no choice but to continue the stance that its “monetary policy will need to remain restrictive”.
Therefore, the NZD will, more likely than not, hold its broad weakness against the GBP for the rest of the year.
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (June)
What is the GBPNZD forecast in weeks, months, and years?
The market consensus for the GBPNZD is that it will not advance too much from here. That is, NZD to strengthen modestly.
A few forecasters are expecting the GBP to weaken into the area around 2.0 in the next quarter. The range of predictions is wide though, stretching from 1.9 to 2.2 (see below).
And these are just expectations. The pattern of rising lows in GBPNZD since 2023 suggests that prices may re-test that 2.20 resistance. I would stick with the prevailing market trend for the moment.
Source: poundsterlinglive.com (Jul 2024)
Where is the best place for buying large amounts of New Zealand Dollars from Pounds
There are two different ways people buy NZD from Pounds
- Through a currency broker like Currencies Direct, OFX or Global Reach– when transferring money abroad
- Through a forex broker like CMC Markets, City Index or IG – when speculating on the price of currency
You can use our comparison table of currency brokers to see how many currencies they offer, what the minimum NZD transfer is and if they offer forwards and currency options as well as when they were established. You can either visit each currency broker individually or use our currency quote comparison tool to request multiple exchange rates.
Or, if you are more interested in trading GBPNZD, you can compare forex brokers here.
What is the live GBPNZD exchange rate?
The current GBPNZD exchange rate is 2.125855 which is a change of -0.06% from the previous days closing price. Over a week GBPNZD is -0.06%, compared to it’s change over a month of -0.04% and one year of 0.57%.
GBPNZD exchange rate data is updated every 15 minutes.
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Jackson is a core part of the editorial team at GoodMoneyGuide.com.
With over 15 years industry experience as a financial analyst, he brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to our content and readers.
Previously Jackson was the director of Stockcube Research as Head of Investors Intelligence. This pivotal role involved providing market timing advice and research to some of the world’s largest institutions and hedge funds.
Jackson brings a huge amount of expertise in areas as diverse as global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University and has authored nearly 200 articles for GoodMoneyGuide.com.
