Pound To New Zealand Dollar Forecast – Is Now The Best Time To Buy NZD From GBP?

GBPNZD Highlights

• GBPNZD maintains a multi-month uptrend
• Reserve Bank of NZ in accommodative monetary mode (OCR below 5 percent) on economic weakness
• Current uptrend to probe 2.20 resistance further; may consolidate beneath this ceiling.

How has the Pound performed against the New Zealand Dollar recently?

Despite its relatively small economy ($250 billion and ranked 50th globally), the New Zealand Dollar plays a large role in the foreign exchange market.

According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS, 2022 report), NZD is one of the most-traded currencies in the world. One reason for this is due to the country’s open economy. The nation trades with all major regions. And New Zealand’s financial market is amongst the first to open in Asia.

Despite this, the NZD has not really been trending against many currencies. AUDNZD, for instance, has been stuck in a range (1.000-1.150) for years.  USDNZD trades in between 1.550-1.700 for almost two years now.

Versus Pound Sterling, there is a trend in motion, but this trend is moving at a very gentle pace. Prices did break north of the 2.000 range resistance – a level which was subsequently validated as support. But this was almost 18 months ago.

The past six months saw GBPNZD lift into the vicinity of 2.200. The question now is whether GBP bulls have the strength – and stamina – to carry the rate over this resistance level.

Technically, there is no reason to think this will not happen. After all, the pattern of rising lows and higher highs is still place. The GBPNZD rate is displaying the textbook definition of an uptrend, especially if viewed on its weekly chart (see below). But a long-time characteristic of this rate is its choppiness. Two steps forward, one step back.

Therefore, I would not be surprised if the rate falters at the psychological 2.200 again before re-testing it. Based on this characteristic, reversionary trading action (buy weakness, sell strength)  is preferred.

Is it a good time to buy the New Zealand Dollar with pounds?

The past few weeks saw Sterling strengthen modestly against the New Zealand Dollar.

If you do need the currency now, as the Christmas holiday season is just a few weeks away, you may wish to take advance of GBP’s recent strength to buy some NZ Dollars.  Watch to buy most of the antipodean currency near 2.20 as there is resistance from here upwards.

Of course you may wait further to achieve a better rate. But this may not always play out due to the rate’s choppiness.

Will the pound get stronger against the NZD in 2025?

In the last monetary meeting in October, the central bank of New Zealand cast a fairly downbeat tone on the country’s economy.

After slashing the Official Cash Rate by 50bps (to 4.75 percent), the Reserve Bank observed that:

Economic activity in New Zealand is subdued, in part due to restrictive monetary policy. Business investment and consumer spending have been weak, and employment conditions continue to soften. Low productivity growth is also constraining activity…….Labour market conditions are expected to ease further, with filled jobs and advertised vacancy rates continuing to decline. More generally, weak house price growth, lower levels of net immigration, and ongoing fiscal consolidation from spending restraint, are expected to constrain aggregate demand growth.

With an outlook as negative as this, the NZ Dollar is likely to stay in a ‘subdue’ mood. China, in particular, is dragging the country’s exports. The country is New Zealand’s largest trading partner, importing a fifth of its exports. Growth there is underperforming expectations. Other countries, US excepted, are too experiencing sub-par growth rates. Plus the local housing market is weak. All these factors are aligning to dampen New Zealand’s economic performance.

As such, the New Zealand Dollar is unlikely to put on a sparkling display of strength. At best the currency stays flatlined against major currencies.

But GBP is not without problems of its own. Growth here is equally sluggish, and the UK real economic growth this year is estimated by the IMF to expand by just 1.1 percent.  Taxes, as announced in the recent budget, are broadly rising. In turn, UK consumer spending next year is expected to be flat.

Therefore, to forecast GBPNZD it is a matter of which economy will weaken relatively more in 2025. For now, the market thinks it is New Zealand’s – largely due to the cyclicality of its export markets. But perception can change quickly in financial markets. Expect plenty of choppy movements in GBPNZD in 2025.

Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand  (Oct 24)

What is the GBPNZD forecast in weeks, months, and years?

The market consensus for the GBPNZD is that it will weaken. Few brokers are expecting the rate to conquer the 2.200 resistance in the next quarter or so.

As showed below, the range of predictions is skewed towards the round number level at 2.00 (see below).Whether or not the rate will oblige and move according to these predictions is an open question. Price-wise, the rate remains modestly bullish and should stay above 2.000 for the time being.

Source: poundsterlinglive.com (Nov 2024)