Pound To Euro Forecast – Is Now The Best Time To Buy Euros From Pounds?

GBPEUR Forecast Highlights

• GBPEUR’s weakness found key support at 1.140
• FX may trade around 1.140-1.160 for the time being as investors await new catalyst
• Sluggish macro outlook noted on both GBP and EUR

How has the Pound performed against the Euro recently?

2025 was a much more volatile year for GBPEUR. But the trend is mostly down for Sterling.

What sparked GBPEUR’s persistent decline was Trump’s tariffs back in April. The rate swiftly collapsed to 1.140. Whilst prices quickly recovered to 1.200, the rally failed to last. The rate tumbled again and only found support at the April lows (see below).

A resurgent Euro is one of the reasons behind GBPEUR’s slide (see, eg, EURUSD’s chart).

For the moment the rate is bouncing around 1.140-1.1.160 in an attempt to find a firm floor. But will the 1.140 support hold the line?

In the near term, the answer seems affirmative. But these are uneasy times for financial markets. The pattern of falling highs is indicative of sustained selling pressure (of GBP).

Therefore, a case can be made for a technical rebound off 1.140, but this is not really a high-conviction one.

Is it a good time to buy Euros with Pounds?

Based on the above analysis, it is a good time to buy Euros now?

If you do need some Euros now, just buy a portion (target 1.150). For the rest, you could wait for a little longer to see if a bounce materialise (to 1.160) to change the rest.

Looking beyond the winter of 2025, however, the rate forecast is less clear. Sterling may or may not weaken further against the EUR. Therefore using spot prices to buy Euros could be appropriate unless GBP shows profound weakness.

You can secure these Euros for use in the future with a currency forward.

Will the pound strengthen against the Euro in the last quarter of 2025?

Make no mistake, the economic trend of both the UK and EU is broadly similar. Both are suffering from high debt and slow growth.

Witness the fiscal difficulties that current UK Labour administration is battling. The effect of the chancellor’s last budget action is clear: Higher inflation.

In today’s Financial Times (Oct 9, 2025, paywall), grocery inflation is noted to be higher in the UK than many other countries. The cause?  “The UK food industry says domestic policies, not global pressures, are forcing grocery bills higher.” Higher inflation obviously constrains the Bank of England in reducing borrowing costs. which,

Across the channel, the economic situation of heavyweight members is not much better. France is attempting to stabilise the political situation after another premier hurried left office.

Germany is witnessing a slow but firm contraction in its famed industrial base. The latest reading for the Industrial Production Index is at its lowest level since 2020 (see below).

As such, predicting where GBPEUR will go is an opinionated matter of which region is the weaker one. For now, the market has not made up its mind. Investors are assuming that both region will churn out similar growth rates (low and uninspiring) and facing fiscal challenges (need to tighten budgets).

Against this economic backdrop, chances of a sustained move in either direction are not high unless new macro readings emerge to disturb the equilibrium.

Source: Yardeni.com 

What is the GBPEUR forecast in weeks, months, years? 

The GBPEUR predictions are relatively flat. They are neither bearish nor bullish.

For example, most analysts are expecting the rate to crawl sideways at around 1.150 over the next 6 months (see below). There is an expected dip in 12 months time, but that’s too far in time to be of any use (unless you are expecting some cash flow a year in advance).

These market forecasts, however, can changed markedly if the financial narrative suddenly shifts. For now, the base scenario is a flat performance.

Source: Exchangerates.org.uk (Oct 2025)