Will Apple’s stock price double and reach $500 in 5 years?

“There are decades,” Lenin once observed, “where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Over a short span of time – time measured in weeks – the new US president has upended a significant part of the current global economical and political systems.

Take tariffs. On today; off tomorrow. Canada and Mexico today, EU and China next (see tariffs summary here).  Unsurprisingly, the increasingly volatile trade policies have sapped investors’ confidence significantly. When growth uncertainties rise, stock prices dive.

No sector is more overbought and vulnerable than those overbought tech stocks. Thus they have been hit hard. Tesla (US:TSLA) share price halved since December; Nvidia (NVDA) lost a third of its value.

Apple Inc (US:AAPL) can’t escape from this ongoing general market malaise. The consumer tech company has corrected 12 percent from its December peak. In view of those crashing high flyers (eg AppLovin – APP, Palantir – PLTR), some may think Apple’s mild correction is, relatively speaking, comforting.

But given the rapidly shifting investment landscape, should we still overweight tech stocks? More importantly, will Apple continue to exert dominance in its consumer product segment in the years ahead? Below we take a quick look at the investment thesis for Apple stock price future.

Can Apple’s stock price still double in 5 years?

The late Steve Jobs created and perfected the much-admired Apple technological system. From iMac to iPhone, the consumer tech firm led the industry with its fame simplicity and innovative features. Apple occupies the premium pricing of the mobile phone, computer and personal wearable sectors.

In late 2024, for example, Apple’s iPhone remains the most popular mobile phone in the world (see below). In the last quarter alone, Apple recorded revenue and earnings at $124 billion and $36 billion respectively. These figures are slightly above expectations.

What is interesting is that revenue from Services ($26 billion in 4Q’24) now comprises a quarter of the Products division ($98 billion). The former is showing higher margins and faster growth rates. Advertising, Cloud Services, and Digital Content are the natural sell point for Apple once consumers own iPhones and MacBooks.

In total, Apple booked around $390 billion in annual revenue (which run from Sept to Sept) and earned operating income of around $123 billion. Net annual income were close to $100 billion over the past four years. A hefty amount for sure.

Based on Apple’s current market valuation of $3.4 trillion dollars, the market is valuing, based on net earnings, the iPhone maker with a P-E ratio in excess of 30. To some, this valuation could be a tad optimistic.

Over the past few years, have Apple’s share prices double? Yes. In fact, it Apple’s share price has doubled twice.

In the first episode, during Jun-2020 to Jan-2022, Apple’s share price soared from $80 to $160. That was during the Covid stock market bubble.

The second doubling occurred from the low of 2023 ($130) to the post-Trump election euphoric peak of $260. This doubling coincided with the AI-fuelled boom.

But remember, over the past decade Apple has skyrocketed 8-10x – to become the largest company in the world. This is an impressive feat.

At this point, it is far harder for Apple to double quickly because of its massive market cap. Doubling a $3 trillion stock requires a gargantuan amount of capital and a highly bullish – but unexpected – market catalyst.

While I’m not saying Apple can’t double its share price in the future. The real question is, from what price level?

Source: Counterpointresearch (March 2025)

Is Apple worth investing in?

Apple is a highly-regarded tech stock. Profitable, cash rich and owner of a global tech-consumer ecosystem.

So profitable is the company that it announced the largest stock buyback ever – at $110 billion – last May. In other words, investors own a growing slice of the company. Apple is the world’s large public company.

But there are risks in buying Apple now. The first is market risk. The current US administration is determined to inject a dose of volatility into the market. Investors may wait for better opportunities to buy.

The second risk is valuation. Apple’s share price isn’t cheaply valued. In fact, according to some metrics the market is putting an optimistic view on the company. When Warren Buffett, longtime shareholder of Apple, slashed his stake in Apple last year, it tells you something about Apple’s rich valuation.

The third risk is the emergence of a prolonged tariff war. This may hurt Apple since it is a global consumer company with manufacturing capacity in various locations in the world. The last risk is that Apple may lag further behind in the AI race.

Still, because Apple is an innovative company, it will continue to invest to sustain its business ‘moat’. This moat is not expected to disappear quickly.

But to gain a favourable risk-reward ratio on Apple investment, I would rather scale into the company over time.  In the last correction back in 2022, the company lost a third of its value over 12 months. We could be looking at similar magnitudes if a general bear market emerges.

What is Apple’s stock price forecast?

Despite the increasingly volatile macro conditions analysts are still holding a favourable outlook on Apple.

Major brokers like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are putting out ‘Buy’ or ‘Outperform’ ratings. Only a small minority are casting an outright ‘Sell’ on the tech stock (see below). Most forecasts expect Apple’s shares to trade in the $200-$300 region.

Still, financial markets move fast. Prices often trend ahead of these consensus, especially near market inflection points. Therefore, should Apple’s share price continue to come under pressure we would not be surprise to see some downward adjustments to these forecasts.

Source: Yahoo Finance