Pound To Norwegian Krone Forecast – Is Now The Best Time To Buy NOK From GBP?

GBPNOK Forecast Highlights

• GBPNOK extends medium-term uptrend into new long-term highs
• Bearish oil outlook and weak economic growth are weighing on NOK
• GBPNOK’s long-term trend looks set to test 14.50

How has the Pound performed against the Norwegian Krone recently?

If Pound Sterling puts on a strong showing against a currency, usually it is that currency which is weak. One example is GBPJPY. BoJ’s accommodative monetary policy simply removes support for the Yen. Another is GBPNOK.

The reason behind the Norwegian Krone’s weakness is more complex, since the Norges Bank also tightened interest rates like the rest of other western monetary authorities. In fact, the Krone’s negative trend has been mentioned by the Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank, several times in its last monetary statement back in September.  The bank assumes that a few economic and market factors are behind the Krone’s depreciation:

Movements in the krone exchange rate are determined by a wide range of conditions, in both Norway and internationally. This makes it difficult to explain all exchange rate movements, but we can safely say that the interest rate matters for the krone exchange rate. If we had not tightened monetary policy in recent years, the krone would have been weaker. Experience has also shown that the krone weakens when oil prices fall or, as we saw this summer, financial markets experience turbulence.

Technically, GBPNOK is now on the verge of rising to new cyclical highs (in favour of GBP). The rate has been moving north and south of the 14.000 key level since June. This potentially cleared the price resistance around that area. A new bout of Krone weakness may thus see a quick run to 14.50 – and beyond.

But the rate has a distinct habit of moving sideways for months with plenty of ‘fake outs’ before making a real breakout. GBPNOK could in the early phase of establishing a new lateral range, with the floor noted at 13.8-14.0.

Is it a good time to buy the Norwegian Krone with Pounds?

Based on the above analysis, it is a good time to buy the Norwegian Krone now?

The answer is yes if you need the currency now, since you might want to use GBP’s strength to exchange the Norwegian Krones.  You can secure these Norwegian Krone with a currency forward.

Waiting for further GBP strength to acquire more Krone is another acceptable strategy, provided you do not need the currency in the near term and that you’re willing to take the risk of the rate faltering from 14.250. Buying on the spot when you need the Krone always carry some risks.

Will the pound get stronger against the Norwegian Krone in 2025?

The Norwegian Krone is impacted by multiple factors. Many of which are dragging the rate down.

Take Crude oil. The Scandinavian country is famed for its oil (and energy) exports. Past export earnings were used to create the US$1.7 trillion Norwegian sovereign wealth fund. Since peaking at $120 per barrel in 2022, crude prices have struggled to resuscitate the bull market. One reason for this is the slowing demand for the ‘black gold’. Consumers only have a finite budget buffer. When energy prices are high, household simply use less of it. Should oil prices break below the $65 floor, a downward leg into the fifties is possible. So this is one negative factor weighing on the Krone.

Another is the slowing economic growth in the country. The Norges Bank recently observed that “growth in the Norwegian economy was low through last year and has remained sluggish so far this year.” One contributing factor to this trend is the high interest rate.

So the interesting question is whether the Norges Bank will cut interest rate soon? The central bank hinted that it will not. “The policy rate,” says Governor Ida Wolden in September, “will likely be kept at 4.5 percent to the end of the year.”

With all these factors in play, chances are GBPNOK will continue its medium-term downtrend into early 2025.

(Of course, things may change in the next central bank meeting on November 7.)

What is the GBPNOK forecast in weeks, months, years?

While GBPNOK is advancing into new multi-month highs, the market is not entirely convinced that it will last. This is reflected in the price forecasts of the exchange rate.

If we look at the aggregate forecasts of GPBNOK, the consensus rates trend sharply lower as we look further ahead. The projection chart below is taken from Exchangerateforecast.org.uk.

14.25 is the highest level that most brokers think will happen in the next year or so (see below). But exchange rates are dynamic. These projections may shift once the rate moves into another gear.

Technically GBPNOK is on a long-term uptrend and a breakout into 14.50 is a distinct possibility.

Source: Exchangerates.org.uk (Nov 2024)