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History of the Norwegian Krone (NOK)

The Norwegian Krone is the official currency of Norway. Its FX designation is NOK.

The Norwegian Krone is an actively traded currency in the world. According to the Bank of International Settlements tri-annual survey (2019), NOK is the 14th most traded currency, ranking just behind the Singapore Dollar. The currency was shepherded into a float-rate regime in the early nineties.

The Krone is one of the independent currencies outside the Euro. The country is outside the European Union (due to a referendum vote in 1994) but is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA). Thus the country has full control of its monetary policies.

The central bank in charge of Norway’s monetary and currency is the Norges Bank. As with most other central banks, its mandate is maintaining price stability at around 2%. The central bank’s executive board decides the policy rate and other monetary directives, and meets eight times annually.

Any travellers to Norway will know that it is an expensive country to live in. This is because Norway is a high-income developed nation with a low population (5.4m). As of 2021, Norway’s GDP per capita is ranked 6th in the world. Unsurprisingly Norwegian Krone is one of the three currencies to be overvalued according the Economist‘s Big Mac Index.

Factors that move the Norwegian Krone (NOK) exchange rate

Foreign exchange markets are a huge marketplace where billions of dollars change hands daily. Hedgers, speculators, investment funds and central banks buy and sell currencies one way or another (spot or swap). Moving a major currency in a particular direction is not easy. Even more difficult is changing the direction of a currency in the opposite direction, which requires a concerted effort.

To understand what drives the Norwegian Krone, you will have to understand what it produces and how its economy is structured. Since the discovery of oil in the North Sea, the Norwegian Krone is linked closely to oil. A rough estimate is that 40 percent of Norway’s export are oil and natural gas. This means that if oil rallies, the Krone is likely to follow suit. If oil weakens, like it did in March 2020, then the Krone is likely to fall. A long-term chart of the Norwegian Krone shows their broad correlation (see below).

Source: Benzinga

Apart from oil, the next factor to consider is interest rates. Since 2020, the Norges Bank has slashed the policy rate from 1.50 percent to zero percent. This is to reflate the economy due to the covid pandemic. The impact of this zero interest rate policy weakened the Norwegian Krone – until the Fed started to print trillions of dollars. A recovery in oil prices in the second half of 2020 helped to stabilise the Krone.

Key Norwergian pairs to watch include USDNOK, NOKSEK, and EURNOK. The latter surged to record highs in 2020 in favour of the Euro and has retraced some of its gains (see below).

Inflation should be closely watched due to Norges Bank’s inflation-targeting monetary regime. Should Norway start to raise its policy rate earlier than the ECB, this may cause the Krone to appreciate further.

Lastly, another factor worth watching is the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (called Government Pension Fund Global), a pot of well-managed capital accrued from its oil exports. The fund, worth around $1.3 trillion, holds 1.5% of all listed shares in the world! GPF invests in 9,000 companies in 74 countries. This fund is set to grow even bigger in decades ahead. By then, oil will be irrelevant to the Norwegian Kroner (due to a rise in non-oil products).

Bottom line – The Norwegian Kroner is an actively traded currency that correlates highly with energy commodities. However, it is possible that Krone’s dependence on oil will weaken over time as the world strives to reduce oil consumption (e.g., electric vehicles). Moreover, the Krone may strengthen further because the central bank did not engage in quantitative easing during 2020, instead tapping its sovereign wealth fund.