Gold forecasts are an indication of where technical and fundamental analysts think the gold price may be in the future. You can use these gold forecasts to help you decide if now is the right time to buy Gold futures, CFDs, options or derivatives or if you should wait until the price is lower.
Gold Forecast Highlights
- Gold surged to new all-time highs in 2024
- Bullish factors driving the metal include: Monetary easing, a fall in USD and geopolitical tensions
- Gold’s uptrend is steady and looks set to grind higher; psychological target level at $3,000
How has Gold performed recently?
Gold, or the ‘Barbarous Relic’ as the British economist Keynes famously called it, is on a roll.
For the past few months, the yellow metal had surged on the back of monetary easing and geopolitical tensions. To some, this was wholly unexpected. After all, in early 2024 the outlook for gold paled in comparison to the then red-hot AI bubble. Nvidia (NVDA) was all the rage then. Gold? Meh. Why invest in the boring metal when AI is set to shape the future?
Now, the landscape has shifted somewhat. The current AI bubble, like the Dot-Com bubble three decades before it, is deflating. “The air begins to leak out of the overinflated AI bubble,” as one business columnist observed (LA Times, 5 Sept).
Furthermore, geopolitical conflicts around the world have made gold desirable again. In fact, since mid-2020, gold has not dropped below $1,600. Support has appeared at every correction; with some parties seemingly accumulating gold at $1.500-2,000. With such a firm floor underneath, gold eventually rallied 50 percent from its 2022 lows (see below).
As the Fed starts the easing cycle, trader has every reason buy even more gold. Just this week (18 Sept), the Fed slashed the key policy rate by fifty basis points – the largest reduction in borrow costs in years. Lower interest rates tend to benefit asset prices. With central banks around the world eyeing more rate cuts over the next six months, gold looks set to extend its extraordinary bull run.
Is it a good time to buy Gold?
Based on the above analysis, it is a good time to buy gold now?
Technically, the answer is yes. The asset in question has been rising non-stop for several months. More importantly, at US$2,600 per troy ounce, gold is in uncharted territory.
In financial markets, especially among trending stocks, strength tends to beget strength. For example, once gold broke the $2,100 resistance highs earlier, prices rallied continuously for several months before a pullback reined prices in. In sum, gold’s uptrend currently appears consistent and steady, although its recent pace of gains is too high to be sustained over the long term.
Will the gold get stronger as we head into 2025?
Over the years, the case for buying gold has always been the same. Here we list the most relevant four reasons to include gold in an investment portfolio:
- US Dollar depreciation – the de-linkage between US$ and gold happened way back in early seventies has de-anchored gold prices. Since then, gold has rocketed from $35 to $2,600 – a 70x increase in nominal value over half a century
- US debt increase – which makes gold a better ‘store of value’ against paper money
- Central bank bulk purchases – as they wish to diversify from the USD reserves
- Static mine production – due to degrading ore and a lack of big gold mine discoveries
In recent quarters, the biggest source of gold support came from institutions. Have a quick look below to see what central banks around the world are buying. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, the uptake of gold increased markedly (see below). This is providing support to gold prices. Russia and China are two of the biggest entities buying gold. Given that the military engagement is still persisting, central banks are probably going to keep adding the metal to their reserves.
Source: In Gold We Trust (Incrementum) (2024)
Meanwhile, as central banks gradually soaked off excess gold supply in the market, gold miners are finding it difficult to add big – and relatively profitable – mines to their portfolio. Production of gold from mines has more or less remained static over the past decade. According to the USGS, world gold production from mining (from 2013 to 2023) increased by just 200 tons:
- 2013 – 2,800 tons (data link)
- 2023 – 3,000 tons (data link)
So where do miners find their new gold mines? From fellow gold miners. For example, Egyptian gold miner Centamin (LSE:CEY) was taken over by Anglogold Ashanti (US:AU) for £1.9 billion in Sept ’24. Last year, Newmont (US:NEM) bought Newcrest Mining for a staggering US$16 billion to form the largest gold miner in the world. Below you can see the top 10 gold mines around the world. These mines are all scattered across different continents.
Overall, gold has remained relatively buoyant since the pandemic and, coupled with the above reasons, it may continue its long-term ascent into 2025.
Source: Visual Capitalist (2022)
What is the Gold forecast in months and years?
Gold is a slow-moving asset. Unlike Nvidia, gold does not do 10x quickly. It is a relatively stable asset, albeit with occasional violent price moves due to speculative funds moving in and out quickly.
Given gold’s recent bullish price moves, its outlook  is naturally positive. According to some long-term industry observers, gold may extend its bull run all the way to $4,000 by the end of the decade (see below).
But this could be an overly simplistic view of gold trend. Like most asset prices, gold will exhibit sharp corrections, unexpected pullbacks, and violent price swings along the way. The path towards $4,000 may take longer than expected. Therefore, suitable position sizes of gold within a diversified portfolio are advised.
Jackson is a core part of the editorial team at GoodMoneyGuide.com.
With over 15 years industry experience as a financial analyst, he brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to our content and readers.
Previously Jackson was the director of Stockcube Research as Head of Investors Intelligence. This pivotal role involved providing market timing advice and research to some of the world’s largest institutions and hedge funds.
Jackson brings a huge amount of expertise in areas as diverse as global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University and has authored nearly 200 articles for GoodMoneyGuide.com.
You can contact Jackson at jackson@goodmoneyguide.com
