The IPOs That Could Redefine Public Markets

One of the most anticipated IPOs in financial history is finally approaching public markets. In this analysis, we examine the opportunities and risks surrounding the trillion-dollar space and satellite giant, what its prospectus reveals about growth and profitability, and whether investors should buy into the next frontier technology boom.

Five Takeaways from SpaceX’s Prospectus

The financial world is gearing up for the astronomical IPO of the year: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Or more commonly known as “Space X”.

Its 100-page prospectus has landed on SEC’s website. Anyone with a modicum of interest in Elon Musk’s company should flick through the dense, but fascinating, document.

Here are my five takeaways from SpaceX’s prospectus:

• SpaceX exists to make ‘interplanetary life’ possible. To this aim, it has built an array of advanced space instruments – reusable rockets, low-orbit satellites and spacecrafts. The company is currently made up of SpaceX, Starlink, and Grok/X.
• Starlink is by far the most commercially successful product. Operated by 9,600 low-orbit satellites, this department has 10 million customers across 164 countries. In 2025, Adjusted EBITA for 2025 reached a positive $7.2 billion. Subscribers’ growth is healthy YOY.
• Company-wide 12-month revenue (2025) was $18.6 billion, with an aggregate loss of $4.9 billion. Grok/AI and Space remain loss-making. SpaceX’s cumulative deficit reached a staggering $41 billion by March 2026 (p.54). SpaceX derived a significant amount of revenue from the US government.
• Ergo, SpaceX’s cash burn remains high. As of March 2026, cash at hand was $16 billion; total long-term debt was $29 billion.
• SpaceX is believed to have a multi-year lead over the rest of the industry (‘functional competitive edge’). Cost per launch is much lower than historical average (85-90% lower), thereby availing the company more frequent – and eventually, more powerful – rocket launches. Its engineering-first approach is incredibly efficient at lowering launch costs.

Source: SpaceX Prospectus

Investing in Frontier Technologies

What is fascinating about SpaceX’s IPO is that the company is as ‘frontier’ as you can get in the stock market.

The company is trying to squeeze revenue from interstellar where no company existed before. From space datacenters to Starship launches (SpaceX’s most advanced launch vehicle), what Elon Musk is attempting to do – ‘reshaping terrestrial industries‘ – is astounding. And the prospectus reads like an old-school Sci-Fi.

Unsurprisingly, the number of risk factors pertaining its business is large, from regulation to technology to launches mishaps.

For regular investors like you and me, should we participate in such risky ventures?

Judging from Musk’s stellar record in Tesla (TSLA), many investors have great faith in SpaceX. Yes, volatility here will be huge, but the rewards are immense too.

Look at how much investors are valuing SpaceX throughout the years. It only goes one way: Up. Pre-IPO value is sitting at an amazing $1.75 trillion. Investors who handed money to Musk in earlier funding rounds are currently sitting on vast paper fortunes. There is no reason to think prices will not continue to go up. After all, momentum effect is one great feature of financial markets.

The bears, however, will contend that SpaceX’s multi-trillion valuation will limit its upside. The space company is unlike Tesla, where the EV company was listed for far longer and where regular investors could buy into Tesla shares when prices were beaten down.

No such opportunity existed for SpaceX. The only time Main Street can buy directly into SpaceX is when the firm is valued at $1.75 trillion.

Therefore, one has to weigh the pros and cons of buying into SpaceX now, especially as the stock is untested in the public market.

Pros

• SpaceX’s long-term business prospects are very exciting
• Growth is decent for Starlink
• An extended competitive edge in rocket launches, leading to other business opportunities

Cons

• $1.7 trillion valuation untested by market
• SpaceX is loss-making aggregate, potentially one of the few unprofitable multi-trillion listed companies.
• Smart money looking to exit in due time

 

Source: 10x Research

What are these giant IPOs telling us?

One last point I’d like to make here is that SpaceX is not the only mammoth IPO about to hit the market.

OpenAI and Anthropic are two massive private AI companies going public this year. These new companies are valued at hundreds of billions as well.

Someone just tallied the size of these three IPOs: They are larger than the entire 2,600 dot-com IPOs two decades ago (see below).

Thus, this is a market trend that has not existed before. The US stock market is concentrating into a handful of trillion-dollar tech companies.

Until now, ‘de-equitisation’ was the market norm. What this means is that, for over a decade, cash-rich companies like Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been buying back their own shares to reduce their cash piles. Equities are reduced; thus making each share more valuable.

Now, these companies are spending their free cash flow on AI infrastructure. Hyperscalers are expected to spend up to $700 billion this year alone. Many are issuing debt to engage in this frantic spending race.

This is a reversal of the ‘de-equitisation’ trend. Can the public market handle these a) massive IPOs and b) newly-created AI securities?

No one is sure. Just the three IPOs alone (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic) will expand the $70 trillion US market by 5%. So this is a large percentage.

In the world of economics, when supply increases sharply and demand remains static, expect prices to soften.

Source: profgmedia.com