How much will Pfizer stock cost in 2030?

Pfizer’s share price has almost halved since its 2022 peak and is now down to pre-pandemic 5-year lows. In this analysis, we take a look at why the Pfizer share price is so low and where it may be at the end of the decade.

2030 might sound like a long time into the future, but the new decade will start in less than 6 years which for long-term investors can be a blink of an eye. That said forecasting how much the Pfizer stock price will be in 2030 is not a simple task.

If you are in any doubt about that, just think back over the previous 5 years and consider the events we have all experienced, and what’s changed in the World in that time.

Why should I invest in Pfizer?

Let’s start this process by looking at why you might want to invest in Pfizer in the first place.

Pfizer is a research-led global drug manufacturer which produces a wide range of drugs, vaccines and treatments, in areas such as oncology, inflammation and immunology, and rare diseases.

It has a market cap of just under $160.00 billion and it employs more than 80,000 staff though it is reducing its headcount as part of a cost-cutting drive.

Pfizer’s share price has fallen by -37.0% over the last year, a fall that has been attributed to the sharp drop in demand for COVID-19 vaccines and treatments.

Pfizer’s share price peaked at $61.70 in December 2021 and it’s been downhill ever since though we did see a brief bounce into year-end 2023.

Pfizer’s fundamentals

The stock currently trades on a forward PE of 12.60 times and on a price-to-sales ratio of 2.36 times.

In both cases that puts Pfizer at the bottom of its peer group, of large-cap Pharmaceutical stocks.

On the plus side, Pfizer does have the best 5-year earnings growth and second-best 5-year revenue growth among the group.

However, that likely reflects a surge in sales of Covid treatments and vaccines, during the pandemic, and as we noted above, those days seem to be well behind us.

Pfizer is 68% owned by institutional investors but only 0.05% of the company’s stock is owned by insiders, never a good look to my mind.

Is Pfizer’s dividend safe?

Pfizer yields +5.80%, by far the highest among its peers.

Johnson and Johnson has the next highest yield at +2.94%, while sector leaders like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk yield + 0.72% and +0.58% respectively.

A high dividend yield can be a red flag, however, Pfizer has a relatively conservative payout ratio of +55.80% and has grown its dividend by just + 25.0% over the last 5 years.

Pfizer has annual sales of over $100.0 billion and a net income of some $31.0 billion, however, it did manage to make a loss in the previous quarter.

Pfizer cut its guidance for 2024 in mid-December slashing projected earnings per share to $2.05-$2.25, from the analyst’s consensus forecast. of $3.16 per share.

So is the Pfizer dividend safe? Yes, it is for the moment.

Pfizer’s share price in 2030

The company needs to start making good on its promises, by for example cutting costs and improving its pipeline of drugs.

Pfizer has said it will trim expenses by at least- $4.0 billion going forward and is taking over cancer drug maker Seagen, in a $43.0 billion deal to boost its drug roster.

As to Pfizer’s share price in 2030, the stock has been subject to numerous downgrades over the last quarter.

The most recent came from US bank Citi which cut their price target to $28.00, effectively the current Pfizer price.

Management will likely need a minimum of 18 months to integrate Seagen and rationalise Pfizer’s existing operations.

However, if that doesn’t go to plan, I wonder how receptive the institutional shareholders in the business, would be to a dose of activism and a potential break up of Pfizer.

And if that were the case, might a sum of the parts valuation of $45.00 per share, for Pfizer, be in the right ballpark?