Why these high flyer stocks have come crashing back down to earth

Back at 2019 we looked at the winners and losers in the FTSE 350, and aimed to uncover potential reversals in performance for the future. Now, five years later, we revisit these predictions to see which calls hit the mark and which missed the mark.

Sirius Minerals

In our original analysis, we wrote: “The stock that sits second in our table is Sirius Minerals, which had a torrid 2019. The company was forced to abandon a US$500 million fundraising, due to market conditions over the summer months… But at the same time, so sharp was the fall in the share price and the market cap of the company, that it effectively became a value stock… That optimism seems to have been well-founded as earlier this week mining giant Anglo American announced that it was in advanced talks to acquire Sirius Minerals for £386 million. The stock rallied a further +46% as a result of that news.”

Sirius Minerals did see a brief rally on the Anglo American acquisition, but longer-term, the company’s assets failed to deliver significant returns for investors. The potash mine’s development has been slower than expected, and Anglo American’s share price growth has largely been driven by other factors. Investors betting on a Sirius recovery likely saw limited upside.

Galliford Try

We also highlighted Galliford Try, noting that“Galliford Try… has been among the biggest losers… However, a trading update from the company this morning shows that the company’s decision to exit large-scale housebuilding and focus solely on smaller projects may be paying dividends…”

Galliford Try’s pivot toward smaller projects helped stabilize its operations, but the share price recovery was modest. The construction industry’s challenges, compounded by rising costs and labor shortages. But coming into 2025 the shares have done very well.

Future PLC

Among the standout performers of 2019, Future plc caught our attention: “Future has been on a run for some time; in fact, its shares have risen nine-fold over the last decade. The question is will this phenomenal run continue into 2020? The company trades on a price-to-book value of almost 6 times… That tells us there is a great deal of expectation built into the share price already.”

This prediction was largely accurate initialy as Future continued its impressive run in 2020 and 2021, fueled by acquisitions and digital media growth. However, by 2023, the stock faced a sharp correction as higher interest rates and waning advertising revenues hit its valuation. Long-term holders saw strong returns, but late entrants into the stock likely faced losses.

JD Sports Fashion

We also flagged JD Sports Fashion as a potential candidate for fading momentum: “JD Sports Fashion… has had a big run. The question is whether there are sufficient catalysts to keep its momentum going into 2020 and beyond.”

JD Sports defied expectations. It continued to thrive, driven by global expansion and strong consumer demand. Even amid economic headwinds, its strategic acquisitions and brand strength bolstered its share price, proving skeptics wrong. But it took a big hit in 2022, followed by a sharp rally, but is now not doing very well at down almost 30% over a year.

Key Lessons from Our Analysis

1. Value vs. Growth: In 2019, we noted the growing disparity between value and growth investing. As we wrote, “While low interest rates and easy money persist across the globe, there is little reason to think that growth stocks will be derailed.” This trend largely held true until 2022, when rising rates finally pressured high-growth stocks.
2. Reversals Are Rare: Stocks that performed poorly in 2019, like Sirius Minerals and Galliford Try, struggled to deliver substantial recoveries, underscoring the difficulty of timing reversals.
3. Momentum Matters: High-flyers like Future and JD Sports demonstrated the power of momentum. However, the timing of entry and exit is critical to realizing gains.

Reflecting on our 2019 analysis, we see a mix of hits and misses. The lesson remains clear: while past performance provides insights, thorough research and timing are key to navigating market trends effectively.