Our EURAUD forecast can help you decide if now is a good time to buy Euros with Australian Dollars for either a large international money transfer, if you are planning on hedging currency exposure, or speculating on the forex markets.
EURAUD Forecast highlights
- EURAUD tumbles near 52-week lows
- RBA eyeing a potential rate hike in March, due to higher-than-expected inflation rates
- Commodity strength also favours AUD, although that may change should growth soften in 2H
How has EURAUD performed recently?
EURAUD was trapped in tight range until late last year. Since then, the rate has been tumbling non-stop (in favour of AUD).
Look at the FX’s daily chart below. From 1.760 at the start of 2026, the exchange rate broke through a series of support levels (1.720, 1.700). This suggests persistent selling of the Euro.
While technically oversold, the EURAUD’s decline seems intact, still. Prices did rebound from 1.640, but that failed to break the progression of lower highs.
One of the reasons behind AUD’s rebound is the strength in key commodities, particularly those that Australia exports a substantial amount of, such as copper. The US-Iran conflict is pushing up natural gas prices as Gulf gas exports dwindle. This may benefit Australia because the country is a large gas exporter.
Another AUD positive factor is the surprise rate hike in early February. The central bank of Australia increased the policy rate by 25bps to 3.85%.
Chartwise, Euro-AUD is trending southwards into its prior trading range at 1.600-1.680. Momentum is strong and may re-test the range floor in the coming weeks.
Is it a good time to buy Euros with AUD?
The Aussie dollar is having a good run against the Euro in recent months. The fall from 1.800 has been relentless. Should we, then, take advantage of this correction and buy Euros now?
Yes, would be my answer. If you need some Euros now, any rate below 1.680-1.670 would be a good one. Of course, you may want to bet on further Euro weakness. But there is some risk involved in this choice, as the Euro may stage an oversold rebound. Therefore, if you’re unsure whether to buy all the Euros you need at once, perhaps splitting the buying would be a good idea. Buy some now and watch to buy more Euros at a more favourable rate later.
Will the Euro get stronger in the second quarter of 2026?
Like most central banks, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is mandated to restrain inflation. That’s one of the key objectives of RBA.
Hence, Australia’s inflation readings are closely watched by the market and the RBA Monetary Policy Board. Any deviation from RBA’s targeted inflation level (2-3%), however small, will cause investors to evaluate the potential changes in the monetary policy.
The last quarter of 2025 unexpectedly saw a persistent rise in general prices. After a while, the RBA was forced to act. It raised the Cash Rate by 25bps in the February meeting – its first hike in over 2 years.
Of course, the market was already alert to this possibility late last year. The Euro-Aussie Dollar was dragged from 1.800 to 1.740, and quickly dropped through support levels when traders suspect a hike was definitely on the table.
What now? A few days ago (3 March), the governor of RBA Michele Bullock observed that:
We have inflation at 3.8% headline, and we have unemployment at 4.1; [that’s] tight. The board will be actively looking at whether or not it needs to move more quickly. So I would discourage people from thinking that we necessarily only meet every quarter.
What this means is that a back-to-back hike is possible. If so, EURAUD’s decline may persist.
The another point worth mentioning is the US-Iran conflict. For energy producers in the region, the missile attacks and counter-attacks are bad for business. Cargo ships are halted at the Strait; essential commodities like food can’t get in. What is worse, high-spending tourists are fleeing.
For Australia, its commodity-rich economy may benefit from this turmoil. Importers of gas need alternatives – quickly. Therefore, Australia may step up and fill in this gap.
The second-order effect of the conflict, however, is that those well-capitalised Middle Eastern investors are no longer able to invest as much as before. Shooting missiles cost money; idling petrol pumps cost even more money.
Therefore, whilst the AUD dollar is well-primed to take advantage of the turmoil in the energy conflict, one has to beware of the growing risk to global economic and financial growth. If economic activities nosedive, investors may well turn their back to cyclical currencies.
Source: RBA (Jan 2026)
What is the EURAUD forecast in weeks?
The market is not entirely convinced that EURAUD will stay low at the current pricing.
According to an aggregate of EURAUD forecasts, a sharp rebound to 1.750 is expected (see below). Interestingly, no prediction suggests a further dip into 1.600.
Are these forecasts too negative on the AUD? Hard to say, given the fluidity of situation in the Middle East and inflation. I would, however, pay more attention to the EURAUD trend currently in play – and the trend points firmly down.
Source: ExchangeRates.org.uk (March 26)
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