Prediction markets are platforms where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future events. These events can be political, economic, sporting or anything that can be framed as a clear yes or no question. Prices move according to supply and demand, which means the market reflects the collective view of all participants about how likely an event is to occur.
| Name | Logo | Commission | Interest | GMG Rating | Customer Reviews | CTA | Feature | Expand |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Commission $0-0.10 | Interest 3.37% APY | GMG Rating | Customer Reviews | Contract Venues:
| Interactive Brokers Event Contracts Review: Zero Commission & Dual Access Account: Interactive Brokers ForecastTrader Description: We rate Interactive Brokers for trading forecast contracts with access to ForecastEx forecast contracts. Is event contract trading on IBKR any good? Yes, Interactive Brokers offers extensive global market access, institutional-grade trading platforms and low-cost execution. IBKR ForecastTrader adds a unique forecast-contract feature, appealing to sophisticated traders. Note: ForecastEx is an IBKR-owned affiliate that is an exchange and clearinghouse for forecast contracts (while IBKR ForecastTrader is the trading platform offered by IBKR where you buy and sell these contracts, as well as ones from the CME). Pricing and Trade Mechanics: Very cheap: Commission free for IBKR ForecastTrader, and traders earn 3.14% APY on their investment with an interest-like incentive coupon. New accounts get USD 3.00 they can use to trade forecast contracts. For IBKR ForecastTrader, trading works like this: If an investor purchases a position at USD 0.50 and the market closes at USD 0.50, the daily incentive coupon will be based on USD 0.50. If, on the following day, the market for the same contract closes at USD 0.70, the daily incentive coupon will be based on USD 0.70. Market Access: Very good, on ForecastEx forecast contracts. Trading is available around the clock, six days a week. Forecast contracts on U.S. elections are only available to eligible U.S. residents. Apps & Website: Excellent, these contracts can be traded on the dedicated platform of IBKR Forecast Trader or through Interactive Brokers’ platforms Trader Workstation (TWS), IBKR Desktop. IBKR Mobile, or Client Portal. Customer Service: Fair, good in-house developed AI chatbots and account summaries, however, unless you are a large client you may find it slow to get through on the phone. Research & Analysis: Excellent, Interactive Brokers has a section of the IBKR ForecastTrader website dedicated to education content to help traders understand these contracts. There are also courses on IBKR Campus Traders’ Academy that cover the fundamentals of forecast contracts and economic forecasts listed on IBKR ForecastTrader. Resources include an IBKR Campus section on Economic Forecast Contracts, where traders can earn how to read and speculate on economic data points. And a section on Forecast Contracts Fundamentals. What’s the IBKR ForecastTrader platform like? You can see the payout of the forecast contracts trading platform from Interactive Brokers in the below screenshot.
Pros
Cons
Overall4.8 |
What Are Prediction Markets?
In effect, prediction markets turn opinions into tradable instruments. If a contract is trading at 70, the market is implying a 70 percent chance that the event will happen. If the outcome is confirmed, the contract settles at 100. If it does not, it settles at zero.
Prediction markets are often used to gauge sentiment because they combine information from a wide range of participants and update continuously as expectations change.
You can trade prediction markets through platforms like Interactive Brokers, who have event contracts from the CME and ForecastX. Other brokers also use pricing from Polymarkt and Kalshi.
What are the most popular prediction markets?
The best known prediction markets are global retail platforms that allow participants to trade opinions about politics, policy decisions and macro events. Popular examples include markets on election winners, central bank decisions, inflation outcomes, interest rate cuts or hikes, and sporting or entertainment results.
Institutional versions also exist. Exchanges such as CME have explored event-style contracts in the past, and a number of academic and research bodies build internal prediction markets to forecast business outcomes, sales numbers or product success.
Which is an example of a prediction market?
A widely cited example is PredictIt in the United States. Traders could buy or sell shares in outcomes such as who would win an election or whether a piece of legislation would pass. Each share cost between 1 cent and 99 cents and settled at 1 dollar if the event occurred.
Another example is Kalshi, which operates regulated event contracts on subjects such as interest rate decisions, inflation releases or weather metrics. Although these are structured as event futures, they behave similarly to prediction markets, with prices reflecting the probability of an outcome.
Many decentralised crypto platforms also run prediction markets where settlements occur on-chain, although liquidity and regulatory certainty differ from traditional financial exchanges.
Are prediction markets the same as gambling?
Not exactly, but the distinction depends heavily on regulation and jurisdiction.
Prediction markets are designed to aggregate information and express probabilities, while gambling is primarily entertainment with no market pricing mechanism. However, when prediction markets cover highly sensitive subjects such as elections, regulators often view them as too close to betting.
Some authorities classify political prediction markets as gambling. Others permit them under strict conditions if they are used for research, education or hedging economic outcomes. This blurred line is one of the main challenges facing the industry.
Who regulates prediction markets?
In the United States, prediction markets that function like financial contracts fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The regulator has approved certain event-based markets and rejected others, particularly those involving political outcomes.
Elsewhere, regulation varies. Some countries do not permit real-money prediction markets at all. Others classify them under gaming rules rather than derivatives regulation. Crypto-based markets often fall outside traditional frameworks entirely, which increases risk.
Because oversight is inconsistent, traders need to check whether a platform is licensed, supervised or operating under a no-action letter.
Prediction markets versus futures and options
Prediction markets resemble derivatives but operate more simply. A futures or options contract has complex pricing, margin requirements, time decay and exposure to underlying assets. Prediction markets strip all that back to a single binary question: will this happen or not.
Key differences include:
Futures and options allow hedging real market positions. Prediction markets are usually speculative.
Derivatives have well defined valuation models. Prediction market pricing is driven entirely by trader sentiment.
Futures and options are standardised financial instruments. Prediction markets are often bespoke and can include non-financial subjects such as elections or policy decisions.
Derivatives are tightly regulated globally. Prediction market regulation is inconsistent and often contested.
Despite the simplicity, prediction markets behave similarly to binary options or event contracts, where the final settlement is 100 if the event occurs and zero if it does not.
Pros and cons of prediction markets
Pros
- Simple to understand. Traders only need to decide whether an event will happen, and prices directly reflect probabilities.
- Low barriers to entry. Contract sizes are small and do not require margin, which makes the format accessible.
- Continuous sentiment gauge. Markets show real time collective expectations ahead of major events.
- Useful for hedging uncertainty. Some institutional markets allow participants to hedge economic or policy outcomes.
Cons
- High risk of total loss. If the event does not occur, contracts typically expire worthless.
- Regulatory uncertainty. Many political or socially sensitive markets face restrictions or shutdowns.
- Speculative nature. These are not investments and have no linkage to underlying assets or long term economic growth.
- Information quality varies. Prices can be distorted by low liquidity or herd behaviour, reducing their reliability.
- Potential overlap with gambling laws. Some jurisdictions classify prediction markets as gaming, which limits access and protections.
Predction Markets Versus Event Conrtacts
| Feature | Event Contracts | Prediction Markets |
| Primary purpose | Speculate on or hedge a defined market or economic outcome | Aggregate crowd sentiment on any future event, financial or non-financial |
| Structure | Fixed payout if the event occurs, zero if it does not | Same principle, but often framed as buying or selling shares priced as probabilities |
| Underlying reference | Usually linked to exchange listed futures or economic indicators | Can cover politics, policy, sports, entertainment or bespoke research questions |
| How pricing works | Price reflects the probability implied by the market, often supported by CME listed products | Price purely reflects trader sentiment and liquidity, not a formal valuation model |
| Regulation | Typically overseen by financial regulators such as the CFTC when linked to futures markets | Regulatory treatment varies widely and political markets often fall under gambling or face restrictions |
| Use cases | Short term speculation, hedging and expressing views on economic data or market levels | Forecasting, polling alternatives, research and speculative trading on broader events |
| Risk profile | Limited risk because you can only lose the premium paid | Same limited risk structure but higher regulatory and market uncertainty |
| Examples | CME Group event contracts, IBKR ForecastTrader | Kalshi, PredictIt, decentralised crypto prediction platforms |