Best Event Contracts Trading Plaforms Compared & Reviewed

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Event contracts offer a novel, accessible way to trade on market outcomes or other events — without the complexity of traditional futures or derivatives. They are defined-risk, yes/no contracts that let you bet on whether a given outcome will occur. On platforms like IBKR, contracts can reference established futures markets via CME or broader economic, environmental, or policy events through ForecastEx.

We’ve ranked and reviewed the best event conrtact trading platforms for prediction markets and forecast trading, highlighting what each platform does best.

What is the purpose of an event contract?

An event contract is a derivative that allows a trader to place a bet on the outcome of a specific event — often a question phrased “yes” or “no.” Rather than buying a traditional futures contract, where the aim is to capture price movements over time, you are simply speculating whether a particular event will happen (or a condition will be met) by a given date.

The appeal of event contracts lies in their simplicity and clarity: you know in advance exactly what you’re risking (the premium you pay) and what you stand to gain (a fixed payout if you’re correct). That transparency makes them an accessible entry point for anyone who wants exposure to markets or events — or a way to hedge uncertainty — without dealing with the complexity of conventional derivatives.

How do event contracts work?

On Interactive Brokers (IBKR), event contracts — or “Forecast and Event Contracts” — are accessible via their “ForecastTrader” platform.
You log in to ForecastTrader, choose an event or market outcome you wish to speculate on, and then pick either a “Yes” or “No” contract. The platform displays live bid/ask prices, volume, and the underlying event’s previous data to help you gauge market sentiment.

If you buy a “Yes” contract at a certain price and you believe that the event will occur — or buy “No” if you think it won’t — your profit (or loss) depends entirely on that outcome. If the event occurs (or condition is met), correct contracts typically settle at a fixed payout; if it doesn’t, they expire worthless.

For some of the contracts listed via IBKR, the underlying data comes from real futures markets on CME Group; for others (such as economic or climate-indicator contracts via ForecastEx LLC), the underlying index is a synthetic construct — used internally to bundle related contracts — rather than a tradable asset.

An example of an event contract

Suppose you believe that at the end of today’s session, the futures price for a popular index — say the “E-mini S&P 500” — will close above a certain level. You log into IBKR ForecastTrader, navigate to the list of available event contracts, and find a “Yes/No” contract for exactly that outcome.

You buy a “Yes” contract at a price of, say, $0.75 — implying the market currently puts a 75 % probability on the index finishing above that level. Your maximum potential loss is $0.75 (the price you paid).

If by end-of-day the futures market closes above the specified level, the contract settles at a fixed payout (for CME-linked contracts typically $100 per contract, minus your cost).

So your profit would be $100.00 minus the $0.75 premium and any commission/fees — a substantial upside if you’re correct. If the index closes below that level, the contract expires worthless, and you lose your $0.75 stake.

You also have the option to exit your position before settlement (i.e. during the trading day), which means you can lock in a profit or cut losses based on how the contract price moves — just like trading a normal option.

You can see some of the event contracts offered by the CME in the screenshot below:

Examples of Event Contracts From The CME

What are the four types of event contracts?

While there is some variation in terminology, broadly speaking event/forecast contracts fall into the following four categories:

  1. Futures-linked Event Contracts — contracts linked to whether certain futures (such as equity index futures, commodities, currencies, or metals) will end the trading day above or below a specified price.
  2. Forecast Contracts on Economic or Policy Variables — contracts that settle based on macroeconomic data or policy outcomes, such as inflation numbers, interest rates, or central-bank decisions.
  3. Climate / Environmental / Non-Market Forecast Contracts — these cover outcomes such as weather metrics or environmental indicators, where the result has no direct connection to a financial market.
  4. Binary Outcome / Event-Based Prediction Contracts — a broader category that overlaps with the others, covering yes-no propositions about events (e.g. geopolitical, economic, environmental) rather than price-level outcomes.

Because event contracts and forecast contracts sometimes blur together, platforms often offer a mix — but the underlying principle is always the same: you’re betting on an outcome, not buying a claim on an asset.

You can see some of the more political event contracts provided by ForecastEX in the screenshot below:

ForecastEx Event Contracts

Are event contracts risky?

Yes, event contracts carry significant risk.

On the plus side their risk is limited: the maximum you can lose is the premium you initially paid for the contract.

However, that structure also means that many trades will expire worthless, so if you misjudge the market or the timing, you lose 100 % of your stake.

There are also broader concerns. Because many event contracts revolve around nontraditional assets — economic data, policy decisions, non-market events — they resemble prediction markets. That raises regulatory and ethical questions: for some types of event contracts, authorities have treated them as gambling, or outlawed them.

Finally, volatility can be extreme. Prices for “yes” or “no” contracts often swing sharply in response to new information or speculation, meaning that even before settlement you could see wild intra-day price moves — which can wipe out capital or tempt traders into emotional decisions.

Who regulates event contracts?

In the jurisdictions where they are allowed, event contracts are regulated — at least for those referencing financial markets or futures. For example, event contracts offered by ForecastEx or CME are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the U.S.

Some contracts — especially those tied to non-market outcomes such as politics, elections or other socially sensitive events — have faced regulatory pushback. The CFTC has declined to approve certain event contracts that it considered tantamount to “gaming” or betting, arguing that they fall outside the remit of derivative regulation.

That regulatory history means availability varies by jurisdiction, and some types of event contracts may be restricted or prohibited entirely in certain markets.

Pros and Cons of Event Contracts

Pros

  • Simple structure. You only need to decide yes or no on a defined outcome, which makes them easier to understand than traditional futures or options.
  • Limited and known risk. The maximum you can lose is the cost of the contract, so there are no margin calls or leveraged losses.
  • Low cost of entry. Event contracts are designed to be accessible, with small contract sizes and straightforward pricing.
  • Clear outcomes. Payouts are fixed and transparent, which helps beginners understand the relationship between price, probability and reward.
  • Short term opportunities. They allow traders to express views on daily market moves or economic events without holding long term positions.

Cons

  • High probability of loss. Many contracts expire worthless, so regular trading can result in repeated losses if timing is wrong.
  • Speculative by nature. These contracts resemble prediction markets rather than investment tools, so they should not form part of a long term strategy.
  • Volatile pricing. Prices can swing sharply around economic announcements or news, which may push traders into emotional decisions.
  • Regulatory uncertainty. Availability varies across jurisdictions, and some types of event contracts may be restricted.
  • No ownership of an asset. You are not investing in a company, commodity or market, only betting on an outcome with no residual value
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