Coinbase has entered the rapidly growing US prediction markets trading platform sector, announcing a partnership with US-regulated platform Kalshi to allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events directly through the Coinbase app.
What are Coinbase prediction markets?
Coinbase prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcome of real-world events using simple “yes” or “no” contracts, rather than buying or selling traditional assets like shares or cryptocurrencies. Each contract is priced between $0 and $1, with the price representing the market’s implied probability of an event occurring. If the event happens, winning contracts settle at $1; if it does not, they settle at $0.
Users can buy, sell or adjust positions in real time as news and information emerge, without having to wait for the final outcome. The markets are fully regulated in the US and are offered through Coinbase Financial Markets in partnership with Kalshi, with contracts spanning areas such as politics, economics, crypto, sports, technology and culture.
The move marks a significant expansion beyond traditional cryptocurrency trading, positioning Coinbase at the centre of a market that blends finance, forecasting and event contract-driven speculation. Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts linked to outcomes across areas such as politics, economics, sports, crypto and culture, with prices reflecting the market’s implied probability of an event occurring.
Does Coinbase have predictions now?
No, Coinbase prediction markets are coming soon under the partnership, prediction markets are offered via Coinbase Financial Markets, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered futures commission merchant and member of the National Futures Association. Kalshi, which operates a fully regulated prediction market exchange in the US, provides the underlying contracts and settlement infrastructure.
Each contract settles at $1 if the specified event occurs and $0 if it does not, allowing traders to express a “yes” or “no” view on outcomes ranging from election results to economic data releases. Prices fluctuate in real time as information emerges, enabling users to enter and exit positions before final settlement.
Coinbase said the launch is designed to give users a new way to “put their money where their mind is,” allowing them to trade based on their knowledge and views of current events rather than price movements in traditional financial assets alone. Prediction markets will sit alongside crypto trading within the Coinbase app, enabling users to manage digital assets and event-based positions in one place.
Access to prediction markets is initially limited to a subset of US users, with a broader rollout planned. Trades can be funded using USD or USDC balances already held in Coinbase accounts, and markets are available to trade 24/7, aside from brief weekly maintenance windows.
Kalshi’s Head of Crypto, John Wang, described the partnership as a major step towards mainstream adoption of prediction markets, noting that Kalshi has become a key liquidity layer for large crypto platforms. Industry reaction has been mixed, with supporters calling the launch a “game changer” while critics argue prediction markets blur the line between investing and gambling.
The Coinbase-Kalshi collaboration follows a surge of interest in prediction markets globally, driven by platforms such as Polymarket and increased regulatory clarity in the US. For Coinbase, the move represents another attempt to diversify revenue streams and broaden its appeal beyond crypto trading, while remaining within established regulatory frameworks.
As prediction markets gain traction, the partnership could play a pivotal role in shaping how mainstream investors engage with event-driven financial products in the years ahead.
Crypto.com Prediction Market Intelligence
Crypto.com has announced a strategic collaboration with ERShares and Signal Markets to develop a global prediction market–intelligence platform that combines macroeconomic data, financial markets and corporate outcomes into a single, continuously updating view of market expectations, with the initiative led by its CFTC-registered affiliate Crypto.com Derivatives North America.
The platform will use probability-based modelling across areas such as interest rates, inflation, employment, equities, commodities, digital assets and corporate earnings, aiming to help users understand how markets collectively interpret economic data, policy signals and company performance in real time, rather than focusing on isolated events.
Under the partnership, ERShares will oversee research design, information integration and media output, Signal Markets will provide the forecasting and analytical engine, and Crypto.com will deliver global distribution and user access, positioning the project as an expansion of its prediction markets offering beyond trading into data-driven market intelligence.
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Having worked as a broker at Investors Intelligence and a multi-asset derivatives broker at MF Global (Man Financial), Richard has acquired substantial experience in the industry. His career began as a private client stockbroker at Walker Crips and Phillip Securities (now King and Shaxson), following internships on the NYMEX oil trading floor in New York and London IPE in 2001 and 2000.
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