US prediction markets platform, Polymarket has launched ultra-short-term cryptocurrency prediction markets, allowing users to trade on whether Bitcoin will go up or down over the next five minutes.
The new event contracts mark another step in the rapid evolution of prediction markets, which are increasingly blending elements of financial trading with event-based betting.
The forecast markets are simple on the surface. Traders choose “Up” or “Down” and stake an amount based on whether Bitcoin’s price will be higher or lower at the end of a five-minute window. Prices fluctuate in real time as participants buy and sell positions, creating a fast-moving market that mirrors the pace and psychology of short-term trading.
This development is a natural progression for the sector. Prediction markets began with politics and macro events, expanded into economics and sports, and are now moving into real-time financial market forecasting. With US crypto trading operating 24/7 and offering deep liquidity, Bitcoin provides an ideal underlying asset for ultra-short-term contracts.
However, the format will feel familiar to anyone who remembers the boom in binary options trading. In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority banned the sale of binary options to retail investors in 2019, citing concerns about consumer harm and the product’s resemblance to gambling. Today, similar high-risk derivatives are typically restricted to professional traders.
Polymarket’s five-minute contracts share several characteristics with those banned products: fixed-payout outcomes, rapid timeframes, and a focus on short-term price direction rather than long-term investment. That overlap is likely to spark renewed debate about where prediction markets sit on the spectrum between trading and betting.
Supporters argue the contracts have a legitimate financial use. Because the risk is capped at the amount staked, traders can use them as limited-risk hedges during periods of extreme volatility. For example, investors worried about sudden market crashes or sharp spikes could take short-term positions to offset potential losses in their crypto portfolios.
As prediction markets continue to expand into financial territory, regulators and investors alike will be watching closely to see whether these fast-paced products become a mainstream trading tool or reignite familiar regulatory concerns.
Richard is the founder of the Good Money Guide (formerly Good Broker Guide), one of the original investment comparison sites established in 2015. With a career spanning two decades as a broker, he brings extensive expertise and knowledge to the financial landscape.
Having worked as a broker at Investors Intelligence and a multi-asset derivatives broker at MF Global (Man Financial), Richard has acquired substantial experience in the industry. His career began as a private client stockbroker at Walker Crips and Phillip Securities (now King and Shaxson), following internships on the NYMEX oil trading floor in New York and London IPE in 2001 and 2000.
Richard’s contributions and expertise have been recognized by respected publications such as The Sunday Times, BusinessInsider, Yahoo Finance, BusinessNews.org.uk, Master Investor, Wealth Briefing, iNews, and The FT, among many others.
Under Richard’s leadership, the Good Money Guide has evolved into a valuable destination for comprehensive information and expert guidance, specialising in trading, investment, and currency exchange. His commitment to delivering high-quality insights has solidified the Good Money Guide’s standing as a well-respected resource for both customers and industry colleagues.
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