Prediction markets platform Kalshi has rolled out ultra-short-term crypto contracts that let crypto traders take a view on whether major digital assets will move up or down over just 15 minutes, marking a fresh attempt to bring options-style trading to a broader retail audience.
The new event contracts markets, which are live across Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), allow users to buy “Yes” or “No” contracts on short-term price direction. Rather than pricing complex strike levels, expiries and implied volatility as is common with traditional crypto options, the contracts boil the decision down to a single, binary outcome over a tightly defined time window.
They are similar in style to classic binary options trading, which was banned in the UK for retail customers.
Announcing the launch, John Wang, Head of Crypto at Kalshi, described prediction markets as a potential “Trojan Horse” for crypto options. “Crypto options have never taken off. Everyone has been scratching their head for years,” Wang said. “What if prediction markets are the Trojan Horse for crypto options? More legible, simpler, and built for retail.”
The move taps into a long-running challenge in digital asset markets. While crypto futures trading and perpetual swaps have attracted heavy volume, particularly among professional and offshore traders, listed crypto options remain niche, often seen as opaque, risky or overly technical for everyday investors. Kalshi’s approach reframes the same directional bet in a way that is easier to understand, with clearly defined risk and payoff before a trade is placed.
The CME lets traders trade monthly and weekly option expirations, including Monday through Friday expiries across Bitcoin, Micro Bitcoin, Ether, Micro Ether, SOL, Micro SOL, XRP and Micro XRP. However, open interest in Bitcoin on exchange options remains relatively low.
On the Kalshi platform, each 15-minute market displays the implied probability of an upward or downward move, alongside potential payouts. Traders can see, in dollar terms, what a winning position could return if the market settles in their favour, and positions resolve automatically at expiry. The rapid settlement cycle is designed to appeal to active traders who want to express short-term views without holding leveraged positions overnight.
The launch also reflects growing competition at the intersection of crypto trading and event-based markets. Prediction markets have already found traction in areas such as elections, economic data and sports, and crypto’s round-the-clock volatility makes it a natural fit for short-duration contracts.
For Kalshi, which operates as a regulated prediction market in the US, the expansion into crypto price movements broadens its appeal beyond macro and political forecasting.
For retail traders, the new 15-minute markets offer a stripped-back alternative to traditional options, one that prioritises clarity and speed over complexity.
By packaging short-term price speculation into simple up-or-down decisions, Kalshi is betting that prediction markets can finally make options-style trading click with the mainstream.
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