Election-based betting has come to a new platform with the launch of Interactive Brokers‘ Yes/No contracts. The trading platform’s new Forecast Contracts allow US-based investors to trade their predictions on US political outcomes, alongside contracts on economic data releases and climate indicators, through its ForecastEx exchange.
Forecast Contracts on US election results began trading on 3 October, allowing traders to make gains – or losses – from their political insights.
Interactive Brokers’ Yes/No contracts allow traders to bet according to their conviction on binary Yes/No outcomes.
For example, if an investor believes the United States Senate will be under Democrat control in 2025, they can purchase a “Yes” contract. On the other hand, if they believe this event will not happen, they can buy a “No” contract.
Contract prices range from $0.02 to $0.99, reflecting the market view on the likelihood of each outcome. For example, $0.35 corresponds to 35% probability.
Interactive Brokers’ Yes/No contracts to expand globally
While betting on US election results is only available to eligible US residents, the new Interactive Brokers’ Yes/No contracts are set to be expanded globally through the platform’s ForecastEx exchange.
The launch adds to the broker’s strategy of pursuing innovation in its product line-up, such as previously experimenting with simulated sports betting.
Using the IBKR sports betting exchange, which closed at the end of 2020, clients of the firm were previously able to bet on sporting events using fantasy dollars.
In a 2019 interview with the Good Money Guide, the firm’s founder and chairman, Thomas Peterffy, emphasised the importance of both competitive price and a strong product-line up for the company.
“[We are] proud of offering futures and bonds in addition to stocks, options, Forex, ETFs and mutual funds, all on one screen and all in one universal account, and all at the lowest prices that we know of, he said at the time”
The election-related Interactive Brokers’ Yes/No contracts that became available to US investors at launch are shown below:
- Will Kamala Harris win the US Presidential Election in 2024?
- Will Donald Trump win the US Presidential Election in 2024?
- Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2024 general election?
- Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States Senate during the 2024 general election?
- Will Kari Lake (R) win Arizona’s United States Senate election in 2024?
- Will Mike Rogers (R) win Michigan’s United States Senate election in 2024?
- Will Tim Sheehy (R) win Montana’s United States Senate election in 2024?
- Will Sam Brown (R) win Nevada’s United States Senate election in 2024?
- Will Bernie Moreno (R) win Ohio’s United States Senate election in 2024?
- Will Dave McCormick (R) win Pennsylvania’s United States Senate election in 2024?
- Will Eric Hovde (R) win Wisconsin’s United States Senate election in 2024?
Robin has more than six years of experience as a financial journalist, most of which were spent at Citywire, and covers the latest developments in the investing, trading and currency transfer space. Outside of work, he enjoys reading literature and philosophy and playing the piano.
You can contact Robin at robin@goodmoneyguide.com
