What’s it like trading event contracts on Interactive Brokers?

What is ForecastEx ?

ForecastEx is an IBKR-owned affiliate that is an exchange and clearinghouse for forecast contracts (while IBKR ForecastTrader is the trading platform offered by IBKR where you buy and sell these contracts, as well as ones from the CME). ForecastEx is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). 

How does IBKR ForecastTrader work?

Users are able to buy “yes” or “no” contracts based on stated outcomes for specific indicators.

Contracts are priced in a range between 2 cents to 99 cents, when the forecastthat’s being traded concludes, the winning contract is worth USD 1.00.

While the incorrect one immediately becomes worthless. 

That pricing model might sound familiar to some readers, who may recall the binary options market, that sprung up 15 years ago in London, and which became popular among margin trading brokers and their clients.

However, the binary options market was quickly overtaken by scammers and fraudsters, to the extent that European and U.K. regulators, issued an outright ban on the products, for retail investors, in late March 2018.

What types of indicators are available IBKR ForecastTrader?

IBKR ForecastTrader offers contracts on political, economic, and climate indicators such as the Democratic U.S. Presidential candidate in the next U.S. Presidential election cycle, Federal Reserve’s target interest rate, U.S. consumer sentiment, national debt, retail sales, and levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Specific live contracts include:

• U.S. House of Representatives Control
• Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
• Global Temperature
• U.S. Total Electricity Generation
• Ethereum Price
• Solana Price
• S&P 500 Futures Price
• US Consumer Price Index Yearly
• Forecast contracts on U.S. elections are only available to eligible U.S. residents.

Interactive Brokers’ existing U.S. customers can access Forecast Contracts through the IBKR ForecastTrader platform using their current credentials.

The ForecastEX exchange is also open to clients of other U.S. futures commission merchants, or brokers, and trades on the exchange will be processed and settled by a dedicated clearing house.

Interactive Brokers doesn’t charge commission fees on forecast contracts as the exchange executes trades only when the “Yes” and “No” add up to $1.01, with both sides of the trade paying a portion of the penny fee.  

What makes ForecastEx different from other forecast contract trading sites?

Thomas Peterffy, the Founder and Chairman of Interactive Brokers, believes forecast contracts will be highly impactful in shaping society’s response to crucial questions, and establishing a consensus on controversial issues.

Can forecast contracts be used for hedging purposes?

Interactive Brokers believes that forecast contracts are useful hedges against political, economic, and weather-related forecasts.

However, forecast contracts/outcome markets are not new.

But, interest in them has been revived and has grown rapidly since the pandemic.

According to The Wall Street Journal, more forecast contracts were listed for trading in 2021 than in the previous 15 years combined.

How does ForecastEx compare to other similar offerings?

ForecastEx is unusual in being a dedicated and regulated exchange for forecast contracts, 

The ability to speculate on political and economic forecasts is no bad thing in itself.

However, the outcome in the widest sense very much depends on the business model adopted and its application.

Binary options were an interesting product, but they were open to abuse. And even without that abuse, it would have been hard for even legitimate margin trading firms, to justify their existence and win-loss ratios to the regulator, from a treating customers fairly perspective, whilst the broker was taking the other side of every client trade.

Interactive Brokers’ approach is somewhat different because they have established a regulated exchange to facilitate trades in forecast markets.

The underlying levels of demand for these contracts remain an unknown quantity, are they a novelty? Or something retail traders will get behind?

Best Forecast Contracts Platforms Compared & Reviewed
Best Forecast Contracts Platforms Compared & Reviewed – Good Money Guide

Forecast contracts are platforms where participants buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of future forecasts. These forecasts can be political, economic, sporting or anything that can be framed as a clear yes or no question. Prices move according to supply and demand, which means the market reflects the collective view of all participants about how likely a forecast is to occur.

We’ve ranked and reviewed the best forecast contract trading platforms for forecast contracts, highlighting what each platform does best.

What are forecast contracts?

In effect, forecast contracts turn opinions into tradable instruments. If a contract is trading at 70, the market is implying a 70 percent chance that the forecast will happen. If the outcome is confirmed, the contract settles at 100. If it does not, it settles at zero.

Forecast contracts are often used to gauge sentiment because they combine information from a wide range of participants and update continuously as expectations change.

What are the most popular forecast contracts?

The best-known forecast contracts are global retail platforms that allow participants to trade opinions about politics, policy decisions and macro forecasts. Popular examples include markets on election winners, central bank decisions, inflation outcomes, interest rate cuts or hikes, and sporting or entertainment results.

Institutional versions also exist. Exchanges such as CME have explored forecast-style contracts in the past, and a number of academic and research bodies build internal forecast contracts to predict business outcomes, sales numbers or product success.

Which is an example of a forecast contract?

A widely cited example is PredictIt in the United States. Traders could buy or sell shares in outcomes such as who would win an election or whether a piece of legislation would pass. Each share costbetween 1 cent and 99 cents and settled at 1 dollar if the forecast occurred.

Another example is Kalshi, which operates regulated forecast contracts on subjects such as interest rate decisions, inflation releases or weather metrics. Although these are structured as forecast futures, they behave similarly to forecast contracts, with prices reflecting the probability of an outcome.

Many decentralised crypto platforms also run forecast contracts where settlements occur on-chain, although liquidity and regulatory certainty differ from traditional financial exchanges.

Are forecast contracts the same as gambling?

Not exactly, but the distinction depends heavily on regulation and jurisdiction.

Forecast contracts are designed to aggregate information and express probabilities, while gambling is primarily entertainment with no market pricing mechanism. However, when forecast contracts cover highly sensitive subjects such as elections, regulators often view them as too close to betting.

Some authorities classify political forecast contracts as gambling. Others permit them under strict conditions if they are used for research, education or hedging economic outcomes. This blurred line is one of the main challenges facing the industry.

Who regulates forecast contracts?

In the United States, forecast contracts that function like financial contracts fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The regulator has approved certain forecast-based markets and rejected others, particularly those involving political outcomes.

Elsewhere, regulation varies. Some countries do not permit real-money forecast contracts at all. Others classify them under gaming rules rather than derivatives regulation. Crypto-based markets often fall outside traditional frameworks entirely, which increases risk.

Because oversight is inconsistent, traders need to check whether a platform is licensed, supervised or operating under a no-action letter.

Forecast contracts versus futures and options

Forecast contracts resemble derivatives but operate more simply. A futures or options contract has complex pricing, margin requirements, time decay and exposure to underlying assets. Forecast contracts strip all that back to a single binary question: will this happen or not.

Key differences include:

Futures and options allow hedging real market positions. Forecast contracts are usually speculative.

Derivatives have well defined valuation models. Forecast contract pricing is driven entirely by trader sentiment.

Futures and options are standardised financial instruments. Forecast contracts are often bespoke and can include non-financial subjects such as elections or policy decisions.

Derivatives are tightly regulated globally. Forecast contract regulation is inconsistent and often contested.

Despite the simplicity, forecast contracts behave similarly to binary options, where the final settlement is 100 if the forecast occurs and zero if it does not.

Pros and cons of forecast contracts

Pros

• Simple to understand. Traders only need to decide whether a forecast will happen, and prices directly reflect probabilities.
• Low barriers to entry. Contract sizes are small and do not require margin, which makes the format accessible.
• Continuous sentiment gauge. Markets show real time collective expectations ahead of major forecasts.
• Useful for hedging uncertainty. Some institutional markets allow participants to hedge economic or policy outcomes.

Cons

• Risk of total loss. If the forecast does not occur, contracts typically expire worthless.
• Regulatory uncertainty. Many political or socially sensitive markets face restrictions or shutdowns.
• Information quality varies. Prices can be distorted by low liquidity or herd behaviour, reducing their reliability.
• Potential overlap with gambling laws. Some jurisdictions classify forecast contracts as gaming, which limits access and protections.