Is it a good time to buy USD from Singapore Dollars?

USDSGD Forecast Highlights

• SGD rallies against USD to 1.260 – the highest level in a decade
• Trend driven mainly by persistent USD weakness; and strong domestic growth
• Higher inflation ($100 crude) expectations may lead to changes in monetary policies and volatile SGD movements

How has USDSGD performed recently?

The Singapore Dollar is consistently one of the strongest currencies in the region. The city-state runs a healthy economy with good trade flows and budget surpluses. Not surprisingly, the Singapore Dollar has been gaining the upper hand against the USD over the long term.

Just recently, SGD hit the highest level against USD in over 12 years. When a currency rate is trading at its decade high, this ought to tell you something about the sentiment and outlook of the weaker rate. They are not bright.

Specifically, USDSGD touched 1.260 before staging a technical rebound. Note this rate has been sliding (SGD stronger) since early 2025, a slide assisted by the chaotic tariffs policies concocted by the current US administration.

With the latest tensions emerging in the Middle East, SGDUSD may be in for a volatile period because of unpredictable trade flows, haphazard oil shipments, shifting inflation outlook, and intense sentiment swings.

Chartwise, USDSGD is expected with bounce around 1.260-.1300 band for the time being, with the swings heavily driven primarily by the US dollar.

Is it a good time to buy US dollars? 

Yes would be my answer. SGD had a good run against USD recently. Any rate below 1.280 would be a good rate to buy some US dollars with SGDs.

Of course, having just seen the fx rate at 1.260, some would want to wait and see if prices can retreat back to that area. That’s a fair point. But there is also the risk of the rate suddenly taking off and rally back to 1.290-1.300.

Therefore, I would swap some SGD for USDs at the current rate and watch to buy more on a drop.

Will SGD get stronger against USD?

In Singapore, the currency is a closely monitored instrument. This is because the monetary authority (mas.gov.sg) targets the country’s currency in order to control local price stability.

The intermediate target is called the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER), a trade-weighted basket of currencies. This is markedly different to, say, the United Kingdom where the Bank of England employs the Base Rate as a broad instrument to stabilise prices. Simply, the monetary authority does not fix or peg the Singapore Dollar against any one currency. It uses a trade-weighted basket to judge the effective strength of SGD and then manages this basket broadly. It allows day-to-day price fluctuation of individual exchange rates.

The reason for this (as clearly articulated here) is that Singapore is a small and open economy. Its “gross exports and imports of goods and services are more than 300 percent of GDP and domestic expenditure has a high import content, the exchange rate has a much stronger influence on inflation than the interest rate.”

The most recent chart of S$NEER is plotted below:

Source: mas.gov.sg (Jan 2026)

Essentially, there are three parameters to this S$NEER: slope, width and centred band.

The monetary authority publishes its outlook of the S$NEER at each monetary policy statement. If there is an adjustment to any of these parameters, it will say so.

In latest monetary statement in January, MAS concluded that despite keeping the S$NEER “policy band on an appreciating slope in July and October last year“, economic growth in 2026 is “expected to remain resilient and the output gap positive for the year as a whole.”

Therefore, MAS will “maintain the prevailing rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band. There will be no change to its width and the level at which it is centred.”

In other words, SGD is likely to stay modestly firm against its important trading partners, perhaps reaching new multi-year highs on the S$NEER basis.

What are professional forecasters expecting?

The Singaporean central bank also conducts a survey of professional forecasts of S$NEER at regular intervals. The latest survey was done in Feb/Mar 2026 (see below). This survey shows that a larger percentage (47.4%) anticipate an increase in the slope of S$NEER in the coming meeting (April). However, this percentage falls in the 2H of 2026.

With the current macro environment running into a volatile period, these expectations may have to be revised soon.

For one, high oil prices in March may create more inflationary pressure across the Asean region, Singapore included, in the coming months. This may hasten changes in Singapore’s monetary policy, possibly tightening. The other point concerns growth. A sustained surge in energy costs always lead to an economic slowdown because it taxes consumers and corporate spending.

All these factors create uncertainties for the SGD.

Source: mas.gov.sg (Feb/Mar 2026)