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Saxo Capital Markets has always produced decent research. In the world of stockbrokers, they sit nicely between retail and institutional clients. They have a single professional offering that is accessible to all clients, no matter how big or small. And the research they produce reflects this.
Whilst some CFD brokers churn out pointless technical analysis that’s really just a review of what’s already happened. Saxo Capital Markets, looks at situations in the future and speculates on what will happen to the market based on the outcome of those situations. The research includes including trading ideas covering equities, FX trading, currencies, commodities, and bonds, as well as a range of central macro themes.
In their latest research report, Saxo’s 2020 Q2 Outlook muses on a World Out Of Balance.
It doesn’t start overly cheerily though with Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist and CIO at Saxo Bank saying:
“The virus outbreak has set three major macro impulses in motion: a global demand shock, a global supply shock and an oil war that has forced prices to multi-year lows. This final development will result in an enormous destruction of capital and, soon, structural unemployment.”
But now is not the time to beat around the bush, if you think that the market is going to continue to fall you should look to proect your portfolio with short ETFs, or short individual stocks you are not quite ready to sell.
Saxo Capital Markets 2020 Q2 outlook covered these topics:
- Equities facing worst outlook since 2008
- The great reset is upon us and ends when the USD tops
- China will be first out of the global storm
- Commodities look to fiscal bazooka for support
- Demographics: the missing piece
- A new investment paradigm
Eleanor Creagh, Saxo Capital Markets Market Strategist, noted
“Although stimulus packages may ease downside risks to the economy, for markets to really recover the onus will be on reduced COVID-19 transmission rates, increased immunity and a clear containment of the outbreak. As yet, relative to previous crises, valuations have not become outright cheap. Nevertheless, hope springs eternal both in financial markets and humanity, so there will come a time for bargain hunting. At that juncture, we likely enter a different investment paradigm. The extraordinary fiscal stimulus, a de-globalisation tailwind and recovery in economic activity will bring at the very least higher inflation expectations, and long-term bond yields may eventually rise. Perhaps we’ll see an opportunity to rethink diversification beyond the traditional 60/40 and a comeback for value, cyclicals and commodities.”
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Richard founded the Good Money Guide (previously Good Broker Guide) in 2015 and has been a broker for 20 years most recently at Investors Intelligence and previously a multi-asset derivatives broker at MF Global (Man Financial). Richard started his career working as a private client stockbroker at Walker Crips and Phillip Securities (now King and Shaxson) after interning on the NYMEX oil trading floor in New York and London IPE in 2001 & 2000.