Since early February, there has been a marked shift in the global financial tide. One of these is the withdrawal of capital from emerging markets.
Of course, not all emerging markets are similar. Some have strong fundamentals, some have weaker. Argentina, for example belongs to the latter – whilst Poland is the better ones. The Polish GDP is expected to grow firmly this year. Still, its currency has weakened.
Against the greenback, the Zloty slumped from 3.40 to 3.60 recently. Meanwhile GBPPLN is staying firmly above 4.80 with a bias towards 5.00. As long as capital continues to move towards USD, we expect the Polish Zloty to come under increasing pressure.
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Jackson has over 10 years experience as a financial analyst. Previously a director of Stockcube Research as head of Investors Intelligence providing market timing advice and research to some of the world largest institutions and hedge funds.
Expertise: Global macroeconomic investment strategy, statistical backtesting, asset allocation, and cross-asset research.
Jackson has a PhD in Finance from Durham University.